Voting intention analysis

Anthony WellsHead of European Political and Social Research
November 17, 2010, 8:39 PM GMT+0

Today's voting intention figures for the Sun show the largest Labour lead since the election. Voting intention figures are Conservatives 37%, Labour 42%, Liberal Democrats 10%. We have now shown Labour in the lead for our last three voting intention polls, suggesting that this is a genuine movement in support, rather than a random blip.

The movement in the polls seems to date from the protests against tuition fees last week. Our polling for the Sunday Times at the weekend showed has shown widespread opposition to the rise in tuition fees, with 52% opposing the rise, and sympathy for the protesters' cause if not the violence they used. 65% said they sympathised with the protest, but this included only 13% who also sympathised with the direct action.

It could be that reporting of the protest crystalised opposition to the cuts, or it could just be coincidence - Labour have been very slowly trending upwards in our voting intention polls anyway, so it may just be that the crossing-over point arrived in the week of the protests.

See the latest survey details and full results here