Most people, other than the anoraks, would probably say that the first ten days of the general election campaign have been a pretty lacklustre affair.
No doubt many are yawning at the prospect of another four weeks of it. But one striking feature stands out. Unlike in any general election in living memory, Scotland, its governing party and that party’s leader have dominated the headlines. What are the implications of this for the rest of the campaign and for the aftermath of an election that looks likely to be inconclusive?
It was the performance of Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP’s leader and First Minister of Scotland, in last week’s only UK-wide televised leaders’ debate, which pushed Scotland into the centre of the battle. She was widely believed to have come out best in what was otherwise regarded as a fairly dull affair. ‘Calm, focused and passionate’ were some of the terms used about her. She assumed the role taken by Nick Clegg in the debates during the last election of being the leader able to attack everyone else, including the Labour leader, Ed Miliband, from the left. The other leaders didn’t exactly fall over each other to say “I agree with Nicola”, but the public were clearly impressed by a leader they thought said what she believed.
There is, of course, another parallel with the role of the Liberal Democrat leader at the last election. This time, like the LibDems last time, the SNP may well hold the balance of power in a hung parliament after 7 May. So what the SNP says matters.
Ms Sturgeon has made perfectly clear how her party would want to use that power if it won it. Unsurprisingly from the leader of the ruling party in an anti-Tory country, she says she wants to stop the Conservatives from staying in government. On Tuesday night, in a separate leaders’ debate on Scottish television, she said: “If there is an anti-Tory majority in the House of Commons after the election – even if the Tories are the biggest party – we will work with Labour to keep David Cameron out of Downing Street. I’m offering to help Ed Miliband become prime minister.”
However, her opposite number, the Scottish Labour leader, Jim Murphy, was not exactly enthusiastic about the offer. He said: “Nicola, we don’t need your help to do this.” He understandably wants Scottish voters to believe that the only way to kick the Tories out of power in Westminster is for them to vote Labour. But also, more intriguingly, he said Labour would resist pressure to oust a minority Conservative government if one emerged from the election. That’s because Labour wants to claim that a minority government could be a stable government just in case it finds itself forming one.
But what has also made the SNP the focus of so much attention is the suggestion that the party may not be quite so anti-Tory as it claims. Last weekend it was reported that Ms Sturgeon had told the French ambassador in a private conversation that she would prefer David Cameron to Ed Miliband as prime minister. Both she and French diplomats have denied the veracity of this report, but it is not hard to see why the SNP might think it in its own best interests if Mr Cameron were to stay at No 10.
In the first place, because they have ruled out any cooperation with a Tory-led government, the party would not face the choice of having to make compromises over such things as spending cuts as it might well have to do if it were trying to sustain a minority Labour government in power. And secondly, a continuation of a Tory-led government in London that was unpopular in Scotland would assist the SNP in continuing to argue for independence. Ms Sturgeon dropped hints on Tuesday that in next year’s election for the Scottish Parliament, the SNP may well advocate another referendum on the issue.
But are the main UK parties right to want to keep the SNP so much at arm’s length? The case in favour of them doing so is simple: both the Tories and Labour are in the business of preserving the United Kingdom and of providing stable government for the union, so the last thing they would want to do is become dependent on a party whose main aim is to break up the UK. But on the other hand, the SNP may well end up as the third biggest party in the House of Commons and is already the ruling party of the second-biggest country within the UK. So is it democratically legitimate for the other parties to be so absolute in trying to exclude it from influence?
Before we get there, however, there is the rest of the election campaign to be fought. One obvious question is whether voters in the rest of the UK, and especially in England, will be happy with so much attention focusing on a relatively small part of the electorate. And if non-Scottish voters do become resentful of Scottish influence, what impact is that likely to have on the parties?
The problem is especially difficult for Labour. It is not just that if the SNP ends up with the forty or more seats widely predicted, most of its gains will be at Labour’s expense. It’s also that the Scottish focus will remind English voters how much Labour has depended on Scottish votes to form governments in London; the other parties will pose as the truly ‘English’ parties and it is in England, of course, where most of the votes will be cast. Unsurprisingly, the Tories are campaigning on the lines that a vote for Labour is a vote for government by the SNP.
But these are early days. Other issues may start to dominate the campaign. Tony Blair has tried to put Europe at the centre of attention and his old party is focusing on tax policy, especially the contribution paid by non-doms.
Meanwhile, what do you think about the focus so far on Scotland? Do you share or not the view that Nicola Sturgeon has been the most impressive leader so far? Do you think Labour should spurn or not her offer to help them oust David Cameron from Downing Street? What do you make of Jim Murphy’s argument that if a minority government, even a Tory one, is formed, it should not be harried out of office by opposition MPs ganging up to defeat it? If you are not yourself a Scottish voter, do you resent or not, the amount of attention the SNP and Scotland in general are getting in this election? Do you think possible anti-Scottish feeling may affect how English voters in particular will cast their ballot? And what influence do you think the SNP should have in the next parliament?
