So that’s it. The polls have closed and the votes are about to be counted but there seems no doubt that the nation has voted against AV. The first attempt to change the way we elect our Westminster parliament by a referendum has ended in failure for the 'yes' campaign. So what now?
The most likely answer as far as electoral reform is concerned is: absolutely nothing. In the final days of campaigning we interviewed the three leaders of the main political parties on the Today programme. Nick Clegg told Justin Webb that, although he regarded AV as falling short of what the Lib Dems wanted, he recognised it was as far as it could possibly go in the life of this parliament. Ed Miliband told me there was no question of it being the first step on a road leading to a more proportional system: this was it. And David Cameron did not want any part of it anyway. So, with the vote behind us, we can safely say – insofar as anything is ever safe to say in politics – that it’s over. It’s entirely possible that electoral reform is now off the agenda for a generation.
But that’s not the end of the story. There will be political repercussions from this vote for all three leaders.
It may not be an unmitigated disaster for Ed Miliband even though he’s lost. His critics say that the vote should be seen as a rebuff and will have dented his authority and therefore damaged his leadership. On the other hand, most Labour MPs and trade union leaders were opposed to AV from the start and they’d have been pretty grumpy if it had been approved. So he’s spared that. He can now say: 'Well… we tried and we failed, but we gave it our best shot'. He will also make the point that it has at least caused damage to the coalition because of the vicious way in which the campaign was fought.
On the face of it, David Cameron has every reason to cheer the loudest. One of his most senior backbenchers – a former government minister – told me that if he had lost there would be a revolt in his party and he might very well face a challenge for the leadership before the year is out. If that ever WAS a realistic possibility, clearly it’s not going to happen now. On the contrary. Those who were most opposed to AV are delighted that he has been so robust during the campaign. But it’s not only his own Tories he has to worry about: it’s the stability of the coalition too. And the leader who has taken the hardest knock is Nick Clegg.
Mr Clegg made it clear several times during the referendum campaign that he felt badly let down by David Cameron. He admitted to us on Today that it might have been naïve of him, but he said he believed he’d had an understanding from Mr Cameron that he would adopt a pretty low profile. That did not happen. Mr Clegg might indeed have expected a well-mannered boxing match fought strictly under Queensberry Rules, but it turned out to be more of a bare-knuckle fight with many blows landing well below the waist and a bit of eye-gouging thrown in for good measure. In short, it was vicious stuff. When I suggested to David Cameron that he might want to condemn the way it had been fought on the 'No' side, he said the equivalent of: 'Nothing to do with me Guv'. He said he was responsible only for how the Conservative Party had behaved and not for the 'No' campaign as a whole.
Mr Clegg’s colleagues simply don’t accept that. The former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown told me Mr Cameron had been guilty of a 'breach of faith' and there would be long-term consequences for the coalition. The goodwill and trust that had existed so far has evaporated. The most outspoken of Cameron’s critics in the Cabinet, the energy secretary Chris Huhne, effectively accused no less a figure than the Chancellor George Osborne of lying. So there is a great deal of bad blood in the coalition and no-one can be sure at this stage what effect that will have. Some say it will simply mean no more hand-holding appearances in the Rose Garden; others that it will become increasingly difficult to carry on with the business of government.
The problem for Mr Clegg, of course, is not just the result of the referendum but what happened in the council elections. The party was almost wiped out in the northern cities where they had once held sway. The worry for Mr Clegg now is how many of his members will start publicly questioning why they entered the coalition in the first place. Some are already saying that the promise of electoral reform was the only reason they climbed into bed with the Tories – their old enemy – and with that promise now lying in pieces they can see no point in continuing with the relationship. A few are openly calling for Mr Clegg himself to stand down as leader.
There are now a number of possibilities.
One is that Mr Huhne – who ran against Nick Clegg for the leadership the last time around – will decide he’s had enough and resign from the cabinet. Some speculate that he will then challenge once again for the leadership. How much support he might get in that eventuality is open to speculation but what commentators agree is that he is far weaker now than he was before the campaign began – and they say he was struggling even then. His critics say that the great promise he held out for a reborn Lib Dem party has simply not been delivered and he is severely damaged goods. If Mr Huhne were to become leader or even Tim Farron, the party’s president, they say that would be the end of the coalition. It might also, they say, be the end of the Lib Dem party as we know it today.
Another possibility is that Mr Cameron himself might actually seek an end to the coalition. Some of the more Machiavellian observers (encouraged by one or two senior Labour figures) reckon that he might engineer a situation in which the disaffected Lib Dems will have no option but to pull out and force an early election. But they concede he would do that only if he could be pretty certain of winning it with an overall majority – and very little is certain in politics.
Yet another possibility is that it will all (to use one of Mr Cameron’s favourite phrases) calm down. Mr Clegg will simply accept that, even though electoral reform is off the agenda. there are other battles to fight and win. Reform of the house of lords is one of them. And the critics in his own ranks might calculate that being in power is better than being out of it – even if the big prize is no longer in their grasp.
Finally, relationships between the two partners in the coalition might deteriorate to such an extent that a policy the Tories regard as crucial – such as reform of the NHS – may be jeopardised. That would pose another threat to the future of the coalition.
What do you think?
- Are you sorry that the 'No' campaign won?
- If so, do you think it really is all over for a generation or might the battle be waged again in the next parliament?
- And what effect do you think it’s likely to have on each of the three main parties?
- Has Mr Clegg been fatally damaged or do you think he will be able to ride the storm?
- And how much damage has been done to the authority of Ed Miliband?
- And what now for the prospects of the coalition government running its full term?
- Do you relish the thought of an early election or dread it?
