Something extraordinary is happening. Our latest survey for the Sun shows Labour down to its lowest share for six months - and the Tories at their lowest since Gordon Brown's electoral honeymoon in 2007.
This poll is the first full survey since Saturday morning, when the Sun reported YouGov’s finding that the Lib Dems' had achieved a post-debate breakthrough. It is clear the news of their surge has give Nick Clegg's bandwagon a further push forward over the weekend. Many voters used to be put off from voting for his party by the "wasted vote" argument. As that argument has lost its force, the Lib Dems have become more popular.
This bandwagon effect is often visible in by-elections. Now, for the first time, it is happening in a general election.
The key question is: will it last until polling day? For this is not a by-election, when many people cast a protest vote. It's a contest to decide who governs Britain. Will voters back off from the Lib Dems as decision time approaches - or view this is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to give both Labour and the Tories a terminally bloody nose? Other results from today’s poll show that the public dislike many Lib Dem policies, especially on Europe. The Tories, in particular, are likely to spend the next fortnight ‘exposing’ Lib Dem policies. Will they succeed – or will the impulse to defeat both the Tory and Labour parties prove too strong? The outcome of this election depends largely on the answer to that question.
One further point. Votes are not the same as seats. Compared with 2005, Labour is down 10 points, the Tories down one and the Lib Dems up 10. If those shifts happen in every seat, Labour is STILL the largest party, with 247 MPs; the Tories would have 238; and the Lib Dems would trail with just 132, despite winning the most votes.
In reality, the swing is unlikely to be uniform. But I would be surprised if, on these figures, any of the three parties would be anywhere near an overall majority. Parliament would be not merely hung, but hung, drawn and quartered.
If that is the outcome, then the prospects of a formal coalition increase dramatically. Until last week, I (in common with most other commentators) expected a hung parliament to lead to a minority government and a second election later this year or next year. But that assumed that either Labour or the Tories would be reasonably close to an outright majority, and the Lib Dems would struggle to match the 62 seats they won five years ago.
However, if the Lib Dems win more than 100 seats, and both Labour and the Tories fail to reach, say, 280 (326 are needed for an overall majority), then it would be far from clear that a second election would break the deadlock. In which case, there would be pressure, not least from the financial markets, for the kind of certainty that only a full coalition would provide. And electoral reform would be high on that government’s agenda – especially if the Lib Dems have the most votes but the fewest seats of the three main parties.
It’s not just the current election that has been thrown wide open, but the whole future of British politics.
