Fans see Liverpool as most likely to win the league, though most Arsenal and Man City fans also believe they have a realistic chance of the title
Ahead of Liverpool vs Bournemouth kicking off the new Premier League season on Friday, a new YouGov study looks at fans’ hopes and expectations for the 2025-26 competition.
What do Premier League fans see as realistic for their teams in the 2025-26 season?
While most fans are optimistic of their teams’ chances this season, their sights are set at different levels.
Among the ten clubs with fanbase samples large enough for us to look at in detail, just three teams’ fans primarily think topping the league is within their grasp. Three quarters (75%) of Liverpool fans say they can realistically hope to retain the title, while 59% of Manchester City supporters and 55% of Arsenal fans believe they can win the league this season.
Topping the table is an ambition also held by 32% of Chelsea supporters, though most (56%) see qualifying for the Champions League as their best plausible outcome for the new season.
Nearly half of Aston Villa and Newcastle fans (45-46%) also see qualifying for the Champions League as their main goal, with 25-29% seeing qualifying for the Europa or Conference Leagues as more realistic targets.
Last season wasn’t great for Man United and Tottenham Hotspur, who both finished in the bottom half of the table. Most fans of these two teams believe they can do better this year, with 33-36% seeing qualifying for the Champions League as their top plausible goal, while a further 29-30% see getting into other European competitions as more realistic. However, one in seven of both teams’ fans (14-15%) see finishing mid-table as their best hope.
For teams more used to mid-table finishes, a tendency to avoid high expectations is the norm. For instance, half of West Ham fans (52%) see another mid-table performance as their realistic hope for 2025-26, while 14% think that merely avoiding relegation is their best possible result. A quarter of Hammers (24%), however, have European qualification in their sights.
With all three newly promoted teams getting relegated last season, for the second year in a row, it’s no wonder 55% of supporters of Championship victors Leeds see avoiding relegation as their team’s best hopes for this season, though 30% believe a mid-table finish is a reasonable expectation.
Which Premier League fans are most confident in their managers?
Central to realising these ambitions will be the teams’ managers. At present, fans largely have faith in their managers, though some enjoy more confidence than others.
Among the ten clubs with fanbase samples large enough for us to examine, it is Manchester United’s Ruben Amorim and West Ham’s Graham Potter who command the least confidence from their fans, with 24% and 21% of their respective supporters saying they have little to no confidence in their managerial abilities.
At the other end of the scale are Manchester City’s Pep Guardiola, Liverpool’s Arne Slot and Newcastle’s Eddie Howe, with around two-thirds of the fans of these clubs (65-67%) saying they are very confident in their ability to lead their teams.
Who do fans expect to win the 2025-26 season...
While the first whistle of the season may not have been blown, many football fans already have their first hunches about who will go up and who will go down. At this stage, perhaps unsurprisingly, views are still heavily coloured by last season’s performances.
Nearly half of those who follow the Premier League (46%) believe Liverpool have the best chance of winning the new season, with this rising to 75% of Liverpool fans.
Man City, who have been champions for four of the last five seasons, are currently seen as having the best chance by 12% of Premier League followers, while Arsenal are the current favourites for 8%.
While this season’s title is generally seen as Liverpool’s to lose, Man City fans are the biggest exception, with most (56%) seeing themselves as having the best chance of winning the title, relative to just 28% who think Liverpool are likely to better them.
Arsenal fans are more divided, with 38% backing the Gunners to lift the trophy for the first time since 2004, against 34% who see a back-to-back Liverpool win as more likely.
While Chelsea fans tend to expect Liverpool to emerge victorious (40%), one in six (18%) do back themselves to win, alongside 14% who see a Man City as the likely top dogs.
...and who do they think will be relegated?
Recently promoted Sunderland and Burnley are seen as the most likely candidates to be demoted to the Championship at the end of the season, with 43-45% of Premier League followers seeing them as likely to be in the three teams getting relegated.
Current Championship title holders Leeds are seen as having slightly better chances, with a lower 29% expecting them to be one of the three victims of relegation.
Wolves, who managed to escape relegation after an impressive run in the second half of last season, are expected to be relegated by 19% of Premier League followers, with 17% anticipating Brentford will return to the Championship after a five-season run in the top flight.
Who do Premier League fans want NOT to win the 2025-26 season?
Asking who fans least want to see claim the title this season highlights the strength of both traditional and newer rivalries – and indeed how reciprocal they are.
Two thirds of Tottenham fans (67%), for instance, target age-old North London rivals Arsenal as the team they’d least like to win the league this season. However, just 28% of Gooners reciprocate the feeling, with many instead opting for teams that have stood in the way of recent Arsenal campaigns, such as Man City (19%) and Liverpool (10%), as well as 2000s title rivals Man United (10%).
Nearly half of Leeds fans (45%) say Man United are the team they’d least like to win the Premier League, as do 35% of Liverpool fans and 31% of Man City fans.
Among supporters of United themselves, Liverpool are the least desired champions (39%), followed by Man City (25%).
The Tyne-Wear derby still comes top for Newcastle fans, 29% of whom say Sunderland is the team they’d least like to see win the 2025-26 title, ahead of the 18% who say Liverpool and 17% who say Man United.
For 29% of Chelsea fans, Arsenal are the least desired winner, ahead of Man United (15%) and Man City (10%).
Who do you think is going to win the 2025-26 season of the Premier League? What do you think about the English Premier League in general, and everything else? Have your say, join the YouGov panel, and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here.
Photo: Getty
