Europeans differ in terms of how much they care if Ukraine wins
Key takeaways
- Study conducted in Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy and Spain
- Level to which Western Europeans feel invested in Ukraine’s success ranges from 70% in Britain to 32% in Italy
- Britons and Danes favour an approach that sees the West back Ukraine until victory; others prefer a negotiated peace that might allow Russia to keep conquered territory
- Britons, Danes and Spaniards are particularly likely to support sending peacekeepers to Ukraine
- Plurality of Western Europeans suspect Donald Trump wants Russia to win
23 February marks the fourth anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Looking at the conflict from the outside, European opinion is split between those who think Russia has the upper hand in the conflict, and those who see the situation as stalemate. Those in France and Italy are the most likely to think the former, while Danes and Britons are more likely to say the latter.
But how strong is European willingness to back Ukraine after four years of fighting?
A new YouGov tracker survey of attitudes to the conflict – conducted in Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy and Spain – finds varying rates of resolve across Western Europe.
Britons in particular are likely to say both that they want Ukraine to win (70%); by contrast, this figure falls to 44-45% in Spain and France and 32% in Italy.
These figures are reflected in terms of how Europeans want to see the war concluded. Danes (49%) and Britons (46%) are the most likely to say that they think the West should support Ukraine until such a time as Russia withdraws, even if this means the war and its effects last longer.
However, the plurality desire in France, Germany and Spain (40-42%), and especially Italy (56%), is to encourage a negotiated peace to the fighting, even if this leaves Russia in control of Ukrainian territory.
While many Europeans on the continent might be willing to pay the price of Ukrainian land in exchange for a negotiated peace, that is not to say that it is an outcome they relish. In each country, at least a plurality say they would feel negatively about such an end to the war (34-58%), with 19-30% saying they would feel neither positively nor negatively, and 10-22% saying they would feel positively.
In the event of a peace deal, there is a widespread suspicion that Russia would re-attack Ukraine within the following decade. Indeed, many believe that Russia has designs on attacking further European countries (other than Ukraine) in the next 10 years.
In the event that a peace deal is reached, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for Western peacekeepers to be stationed in the country. Donald Trump has made it clear that these troops should be drawn from European countries, which European leaders Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have ostensibly signalled willingness to do (although they have reportedly scaled back such pledges).
There is support for such a deployment, although it differs notably by country. Two thirds of Danes (66%) and 62% of Britons support sending soldiers to serve as peacekeepers in Ukraine. This figure falls to 48% in France and 44% in Germany – although it is still the plurality preference – but just 35% in Italy.
With a fresh round of peace negotiations ongoing, president Zelenskyy has complained of the unfair pressure he considers Donald Trump to be putting on Ukraine. Indeed, the results show a common suspicion in each country is that Trump wants Russia to win (36-45%). Just 7-14% believe he wants Ukraine to triumph, with 20-29% believing that he has no preference.
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Photo: Getty
