While the public prefer Burnham to Starmer, it is not obvious that the Manchester mayor would give Labour a significant boost
Last week saw significant speculation that Manchester mayor Andy Burnham could mount a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer. While he has given high profile interviews setting out his vision for the UK, Burnham’s path to number 10 is tenuous, given that he would need to find, fight and win a by-election for a Westminster seat, get 80 MPs to help him trigger a leadership challenge, and subsequently win said challenge.
But do the British public think Burnham would do a better job in Downing Street than Starmer?
The answer is a very qualified: yes. Put in a head-to-head contest with Keir Starmer, 28% of Britons say Burnham would be the better prime minister, while only 16% say Keir Starmer. However, this still means that fewer half of Britons could decide between the two (or could bring themselves to choose either), hardly a ringing endorsement for Burnham.
Among 2024 Labour voters the contest is much closer, with 33% backing Burnham to Starmer's 28%. The Manchester mayor has much more notable leads among non-Labour voters, beating Starmer by eight points among the Lib Dems, 17pts among Tory voters, 20pts among Greens and 24pts among Reform voters.
Replacing Keir Starmer with Andy Burnham does not offer Labour much of an advantage against Nigel Farage or Kemi Badenoch on our ‘best PM’ question
However, when it comes to contests between Burnham and Labour’s right-wing rivals, the advantages afforded by the Manchester mayor over Keir Starmer appear less obvious.
In a head-to-head with Nigel Farage, Burnham takes 35% of the vote to Farage’s 25%. This does not differ enormously from Starmer’s 36% when facing off against Farage, who in turn wins 28% of the vote.
Against Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, Burnham is seen as the better of the two by 31% to 18%. Again, however, this is not substantially different from Starmer’s 30% to 21% victory against the Conservative leader.
How popular is Andy Burnham compared to Keir Starmer and other UK party leaders?
In favourability terms, Andy Burnham proves to be notably more popular than Keir Starmer. Three in ten Britons (31%) say they have a positive view of the Manchester mayor, although this is evenly balanced by 31% with an unfavourable view, giving a net score of ±0.
This actually represents a decline for Burnham since YouGov last asked about his popularity in July, at which point he scored at +7.
By contrast, Keir Starmer is only popular with 23% of the British public, while at the same time being seen negatively by 70%, for a net score of -47.
In terms of purely favourable opinion, Burnham matches Nigel Farage’s 31%, although far more people take a negative view of the Reform UK leader, at 62%. Despite some commentators seeing Farage’s announcement of plans to scrap indefinite leave to remain last week as a major misstep, the Reform leader’s ratings are unmoved from earlier this month.
See favourability results here
See best prime minister results here
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Photo: Getty
