Kemi Badenoch now tied with Keir Starmer on who would be the better PM
Key takeaways
- Britons are now tied 28% to 28% on whether Starmer or Badenoch would make the better prime minister
- The proportion of Britons backing Badenoch in head-to-heads against Starmer, Farage or Davey has increased 8-10 points since August
- By 36% to 29%, the public still favour Starmer over Farage for prime minister
- More Britons now think Ed Davey would make a better prime minister than Keir Starmer
- Out of the ten head-to-heads between the five main leaders, Davey leads on three, Badenoch on two and Starmer on one, with the other four being tied within the margin of error
Despite the continued slide in both Labour and Keir Starmer’s popularity, one of the few glimmers of hope for Downing Street has previously been Starmer’s ability to lead his opponents on the question of who would make the best prime minister. But facing a recovering Kemi Badenoch and new challenge from Zack Polanski, is this still the case?
Keir Starmer does retain the seven-point lead over Nigel Farage he held last August, with 36% of Britons believing Starmer makes the better prime minister of the two, relative to 29% who believe the Reform UK leader would do a better job.
However, this is now the only significant lead that Starmer holds over any of his closest competitors. Having held a ten point lead over Kemi Badenoch in the summer, the public are now evenly split 28% to 28% on which of the Labour or Conservative leaders would make the better prime minister. Most of this change has stemmed from an eight point increase in Badenoch’s figure.
The Tory leaders' improvement is not limited to her head-to-head with Starmer. Britons now favour Badenoch to be prime minister over Farage by 31% to 21%, having previously been divided 21% to 23% six months ago, while being roughly split 27% to 25% between her and Davey, overturning the Lib Dem leader’s previous eight point lead.
Ed Davey now also leads Starmer on the best PM question, by 23% to 19%, having been divided 20% to 20% on the question in August, and favouring Starmer by eight points last February.
Davey also continues to be a more popular choice than Farage, with the public favouring him for Downing Street to the Reform UK leader by 33% to 27%.
Do Britons think Zack Polanski would make a better prime minister than other party leaders?
Since his election as Green leader in September, Zack Polanski has made significant breakthroughs compared to his predecessors, with more Britons now having a favourable opinion of him than Keir Starmer. But do they see him as right for the top job in British politics?
The public back Kemi Badenoch to be the better prime minister over the Green leader by 28% to 22%, and favour Ed Davey by 20% to 15%. However, the public are roughly split on the questions of Polanski versus Farage (28% to 27%) and Polanski versus Starmer (21% to 19%).
Across the ten head-to-heads between the five main party leaders, Ed Davey leads on three of them, Kemi Badenoch on two, Keir Starmer on one, with the other four being tied within the margin of error.
Where has Kemi Badenoch’s improvement come from?
The improvement in Kemi Badenoch’s figures across these head-to-heads is significant not just because of the scale, but because it manifests itself in different ways depending on who she is facing off with.
Conservative voters have become more enthusiastic for their party’s leader across the board. Those who backed the party in 2024 now favour Badenoch over Farage by a 20 point margin of 47% to 27%, a marked shift since last August, when just 29% of her own party’s voters preferred her to the Reform UK leader, with 36% instead favouring Farage.
And against Keir Starmer, 68% of 2024 Conservative voters now back the Tory leader, up 13 points since last summer.
But while the proportion of Reform UK voters opting for Badenoch over Starmer has increased 19 points to 57% since last August, the increase is more muted when the choice is between her and Farage, with the 12% now preferring the Tory leader to their own representing a smaller eight point increase.
This contrasts with 2024 Lib Dems being no more likely to back Badenoch against Starmer than last summer, with 11% doing so, but with the number expressing a preference for the Tory leader over her Reform UK challenger increasing 16 points to 40%.
Among 2024 Labour voters, the number backing Badenoch has increased seven points to 31% against Farage and six points to 9% against Starmer.
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