83% of current Labour voters would support a Labour-Lib Dem coalition after the next election
Sunday marks the 15th anniversary of the forming of the coalition between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems in 2010, and the level of support gained by parties in recent voting intention polls would likely create a hung parliament if repeated in an election, raising the possibility of another national coalition.
While party support is becoming increasingly fragmented, Britons still tend to prefer the typical arrangement in Britain of single-party governments, with nearly half of the public (46%) favouring one party governing by itself, compared to just over a quarter (27%) who would rather see two or more parties govern together in coalition.
Support for single-party government is stronger among those currently intending to vote for Reform UK (65%), the Conservatives (63%) and Labour (60%), while Lib Dems favour multi-party government by a margin of 46% to 35% and Greens by 40% to 26%.
Which coalitions would Britons most support?
But regardless of a preference for single-party government, if the next election did result in a hung parliament, which coalitions would Britons be okay with?
Some government between the main left-of-centre parties would have the most support, with 37-38% being in favour of coalitions between Labour and the Lib Dems, Labour and the Greens, or between all three together. However, in all three cases, nearly half of Britons (46-48%) are opposed to such a government.
Majorities of supporters for all three left-leaning parties say they would support any of the three coalition options, though this ranges from 83% of current Labour and Lib Dem voters backing a coalition between the two parties, to just 57% of those currently intending to vote Green being in favour of a Labour-Lib Dem governing alliance.
A coalition between the Conservatives and Reform UK is the next most popular (or least unpopular) coalition, with 27% of Britons supportive of a government between the two, including 66% of current Reform UK voters and 55% of current Conservatives.
Tories would be just as open (55% support) to another Conservative-Lib Dem coalition, though there’s less enthusiasm elsewhere, with just 23% of Britons wishing to give the pair another go and Lib Dems being opposed to the idea by a margin of 57% to 40%.
While ‘grand coalitions’ between traditional centre-left and centre-right parties might be common in countries like Germany, just 15% of Britons would support such a partnership between the Tories and Labour, while 70% would be opposed.
The least popular hypothetical coalition polled is one between Labour and Reform UK, which just 10% of Britons would be in favour of, against 74% opposed.
Which parties form Britons’ ideal government?
Ultimately, however, only one combination of parties can take power at once, so which parties do Britons actually want to see in a future government? Overall, around a quarter of Britons (26%) would like to see Labour or Reform UK any part of the government after the next election, with 22% saying so of the Lib Dems and Greens and 20% of the Conservatives.
Naturally, those currently intending to vote for a given party overwhelmingly (90-95%) want to see that party in government after the next election, but there are minorities of supporters of all parties whose ideal government is a coalition.
While half of current Labour voters’ (48%) ideal government would be Labour alone, three in ten (30%) would ideally like to see at least one of the Lib Dems in the next cabinet, with a similar number (29%) saying so of the Greens.
Lib Dem voters are the most open to multi-party government, with only 30% favouring the Lib Dems taking power by themselves, with 38% wanting the Greens to be included in some way and 34% ideally seeing Labour involved in the next government.
Seven in ten current Conservative and Reform UK voters (69-71%) want to see their party take power by themselves, though one in six (16-18%) of both parties’ voters would ideally like to see the other party in office as well.
Which coalition partner would Labour and Conservative voters prefer?
If the traditional governing parties had a range of coalition options, the Lib Dems would the top choice for coalition partner of nearly half of current Labour voters (46%), while a third (33%) would favour the Greens and just 5% would opt for Reform UK. One in seven current Labour voters (14%) would rather have no coalition, with Labour instead governing without a majority.
Current Conservative supporters are more split. If they had a choice of parties, a third (34%) would want the Tories to form a coalition with Reform UK, while a quarter (25%) would opt for the Lib Dems instead, and 7% would choose the Lib Dems. This is alongside 29% of current Conservatives who would rather the party governed alone without a majority.
Coalition or No-alition? How would voters want parties to act in kingmaker scenarios?
The problem with ‘ideal’ coalitions, though, is that parties don’t always get the parliamentary arithmetic to support them. Instead, they are often faced with a limited range of options.
One scenario could be Reform UK holding the balance of power between a Conservative or Labour government. Were this the case, current Reform UK voters largely favour being the Tories’ kingmaker, with 60% preferring a Conservative-Reform coalition and just 5% wanting a Labour-Reform coalition. Three in ten (29%) would, however, want the party to remain in opposition.
Most current Conservatives (56%) would also hope to see the party seek a coalition with Reform UK in this scenario, with just 21% wanting the Tories to avoid such a deal and leave open the possibility of a Labour-Reform government.
Labour voters, on the other hand, would rather avoid a deal, even if it was the only way to stay in power. Just a quarter of current Labour voters (25%) would want the party to actively seek to form a coalition with Reform UK, while 44% would rather Labour snubbed Nigel Farage’s party, even if this meant he formed a coalition with the Conservatives instead.
If it was instead the Lib Dems who were the kingmakers, the story would be a little different, with 63% of current Conservatives and 85% of current Labour voters both wanting their party to seek to form a coalition.
Were the Lib Dems being courted by both traditional governing parties, their voters are clear which horse they should back, with 63% preferring they formed a coalition with Labour, compared to 17% who would rather they went with the Conservatives, and 15% who would want the party to choose to stay in opposition.
Which coalition, if any, would you like to see after the next election? What do you think about coalitions in general, and everything else? Have your say, join the YouGov panel, and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here.
Photo: Getty
