Britons think that Russia plans to attack Ukraine again anyway if it accepts a deal
Monday marks the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. With the US and Russia holding peace talks in the Saudi capital of Riyadh, a new YouGov survey explores British public opinion to the ongoing peace talks, as well as the wider conflict.
Notably, the Ukrainian government has found itself excluded from the US-Russia talks, which president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has diplomatically described as “surprising / disappointing”. Almost eight in ten Britons (78%) say it is unacceptable for Ukraine not to be included in peace negotiations – including 65% who describe it as “completely unacceptable”.
European leaders also find themselves shut out of the negotiations, and 58% of Britons likewise say it is unacceptable that European governments aren’t party to talks (although a much lower rate of 28% say it is “completely” unacceptable).
What do Britons think is likely in terms of a peace deal?
The majority of Britons (55%) think it is likely that the US and Russia will agree a peace deal in the next few months, and more still (73%) believe that, if such a deal is reached, it is likely to leave Russia in possession of conquered territory.
Consequently, it is perhaps unsurprising that only 21% think that Ukraine would be likely to accept a deal agreed between the US and Russia – and especially so when 65% expect that, were Ukraine to accept a deal, Russia would launch another war on them in the next decade.
Separately, the survey also shows that 60% of Britons think it is likely that Russia will attack further European countries (other than Ukraine) within the next ten years.
In the event that a peace deal was reached that left Russia in control of conquered territory 55% of Britons say they would feel negatively about it. A further 21% say they would be neutral and only 10% pleased.
Britons say they want Ukraine to win, but they aren’t willing to provide more aid
When it comes to attitudes towards the war more generally, a total of 67% of Britons say that they both want Ukraine to win and care a great deal or fair amount that it does so.
However, only a plurality of 44% say that their preferred approach for the West to take is to support Ukraine until such a time as Russia withdraws, even if this means the war and its effects last longer.
Only 11% believe that the West is providing Ukraine with sufficient aid to actually win the war, yet despite Britons’ stated desire to see Ukraine triumph, there is little support to increase our national contribution to that goal. While 41% are happy for the UK to maintain current levels of aid to Ukraine, only 24% want to see it increase.
These results represent something of a bounce-back from our last poll in December, when 62% had said it mattered a great deal or fair amount to them that Ukraine won, and only 36% had wanted to keep supporting Ukraine until victory – it is not clear to what extent the prior results were an outlier or if recent events have focussed minds on the issue.
Reform UK voters differ in their views of the Ukraine conflict
Other recent YouGov research has shown that Reform UK voters differ significantly in their views on the conflict to other voters, and this survey is no exception.
For instance, while 77-86% of Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem voters say they want Ukraine to win, and that it matters a great deal or fair amount to them that they do so, this figure falls to just 47% of Reform UK voters. One in ten Reform voters (10%) say that they want Russia to win, compared to 2-5% of voters from the other parties.
Reform voters are similarly much less likely to want to increase or maintain support to Ukraine, to say they would react negatively to a peace deal that left Russia in control of conquered territory, or to suspect that Russia is likely to cause more conflict in the next decade.
Other recent YouGov findings on the Ukraine conflict and defence issues include
- Only 3% of Britons agree with Donald Trump’s apparent suggestion that the war is Ukraine’s fault
- In the event of a peace deal, 58% would support sending British soldiers to serve as peacekeepers alongside other European nations, as Keir Starmer has proposed
- By 46% to 28%, Britons would support the formation of a European Army that included the UK
- Only 30% would support increasing taxes in order to pay for greater defence spending
See the full results for the survey from this article here
What do you think about the Ukraine war, the threats to peace in Europe more generally, and everything else? Have your say, join the YouGov panel, and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here.
Photo: Getty
