Britons do not think that the Conservatives are ready for government, nor that Badenoch looks like a prime minister in waiting
Each month, YouGov ask the British public whether they think the official opposition party look ‘ready for government’ and whether the leader of the opposition ‘does or does not look like a prime minister in waiting’.
Two weeks before the July 2024 general election, 40% of the public thought that Keir Starmer looked like a prime minister in waiting, while 41% thought that he did not. Given the centrality of party leaders to the British electoral system – as prospective prime ministers – this is a key metric in assessing the electoral viability, and eventual success, of opposition parties.
Our latest data on Kemi Badenoch makes for concerning reading for the newly minted Conservative leader. Our first measurement for Kemi Badenoch on this metric, taken on 16-18 November, had just under half (47%) saying she did not look like a prime minister in waiting, with just 15% saying that she did.
Data from 14-16 December shows that these figures have gotten worse – now, over half (53%) of Britons think she does not look like a prime minister in waiting, compared to just 13% who think she does.
While of course we are quite some distance from the next general election, the time at which the question of “who do you want to be your next prime minister” will be at its most relevant, our first measurement for Keir Starmer on this question saw the public split by 32% to 33% “does” to “does not”. In this relative sense, Badenoch is starting from a very poor position.
It is a similar story when it comes to Badenoch’s leadership of the Conservative party. By almost two to one, the public see her as doing a bad job (37%) rather than a good job (20%) leading the Tories, with the former figure having seen a 12pt increase since our first poll of her tenure.
Again, these figures are significantly worse than Starmer’s at the beginning of his leadership. Starmer clearly proved a break from the previous leadership in a way that Badenoch has not, with opinion of Starmer initially positive: 39% of Britons considered him to be doing well when he first took over, versus 17% who disagreed.
That said, still 43% of Britons "don't know" if Badenoch is doing well or badly, giving plenty of room for both figures to grow in future.
Perhaps less surprising, given the public have just ousted the Tories from Number 10 in dramatic fashion, the latest figures show people also do not think that the Conservative party are “ready for government”, by a margin of 12% to 68%. There is little change here from our first measurements in August.
Despite this resounding “no” towards Badenoch, there is perhaps more comfort for the Conservatives in the ‘ready for government’ numbers.
While in mid-June, two and a half weeks before this year’s general election, the public were split on whether Labour were or were not ready for government (38% were, 43% were not), they also did not think Labour were in such a position immediately after their 2019 electoral defeat. In late December 2019, 18% of the British public told us they thought Labour were ready, while 71% did not.
In this light, the current Conservative figures of 12% ready / 68% not ready do not look so bad. Their leader’s figures, however, ought to provide more cause for concern.
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Photo: Getty