Nearly half of Britons don’t know how they feel about either Conservative leadership contender, though those that do tend to see them negatively
Tomorrow, the nearly four-month contest to succeed Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative party will be over, with either Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick elected based on the votes of party members. The Conservatives will hope whichever candidate is chosen can help the party recover from their worst-ever general election result earlier this year. But to do so, they will of course have to win over the British public.
At present, only one in eight Britons (12-13%) have a favourable opinion of either Badenoch or Jenrick, noticeably less than other current party leaders, including Rishi Sunak, who a quarter of the public (25%) see favourably. In large part, this because relative few Britons have any opinion of the two leadership contenders, with 43% of Britons saying they ‘don’t know’ how they feel about Badenoch and 47% saying so of Jenrick.
The new leader will pin their hopes on converting these many ‘unsure’ Britons, but that can’t be taken for granted. Where public opinion on the candidates has shifted in the last few months, it has largely been in the negative direction. Compared to the end of July, the proportion of Britons with an unfavourable opinion of Badenoch has risen from 37% to 45%, while those with a negative view of Jenrick has increased from 27% to 40%.
By comparison, the number with a favourable opinion of Jenrick has increased from 8% to 13%, while the figure for Badenoch has remained effectively level (11% vs 12%).
Notably, a not insignificant proportion of Conservative voters already have negative opinions of both leadership contenders. While 35% of those who backed the Tories in July have a favourable view of both Jenrick and Badenoch, one in four (26%) have an unfavourable opinion of the former and three in ten (29%) of the latter.
Do Britons think Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick would make good leaders?
One in six Britons (16%) think Kemi Badenoch would make a good leader of the Conservatives, against 35% who believe she would be a bad leader. For Robert Jenrick, one in six Britons (17%) think he would make a good leader, versus 31% who think he would be a bad leader.
Like the wider public, Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem voters see both candidates in about the same terms, but Reform UK voters prove an exception. While they split evenly (28% to 29%) on whether Badenoch would make a good leader, they are roughly twice as likely to say that Jenrick would make a good leader (37%) as a bad leader (19%).
But while Jenrick may fare a bit better among Reform UK voters, whom half of Tory members believe should be the main target for the Conservatives to win over, Badenoch has a little bit of an edge on the key attributes that voters look for in a leader.
While they are level on being seen as competent (18% for Badenoch vs 18% for Jenrick), trustworthy (12% vs 12%) and likeable (15% vs 16%), Britons are slightly more likely to see Badenoch as decisive (23% vs 18%) and strong (23% vs 17%). Badenoch is, though, a little more likely to be seen as dislikeable (37% vs 33%).
Do Britons think that Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick would make a better prime minister than Keir Starmer?
Whichever candidate is elected, their ultimate objective will be becoming prime minister, with their only realistic opponent currently being Keir Starmer. But at present, neither Tory contender comes out on top against the Labour incumbent.
At present, 20% of Britons think that Kemi Badenoch would make a better prime minister than Keir Starmer, against 27% who feel Starmer is the better choice, though 47% of Britons are not sure. Robert Jenrick fares little better, with 21% of Britons favouring him and 29% preferring Starmer, even if again many Britons (45%) struggle to choose between the two.
When faced off against each other, one in ten Britons (10%) think Badenoch would make the better prime minister of the two, compared to one in eight (12%) who think Jenrick would do the better job, though three-quarters of Britons (74%) can’t choose between them.
Once again, though, it is Reform UK voters who have a distinctive attitude to the two. While Conservative and Labour voters split roughly evenly, a quarter of Reform UK voters favour Jenrick (24%) versus one in seven who think Badenoch would be the better prime minister (15%).
Do Britons think the Conservative leadership election matters?
One of the central challenges for the new leader will be working against the public’s hostility towards the Conservative Party, which only a quarter of Britons (25%) see in a favourable light and two-thirds (67%) view unfavourably.
Only one in five Britons (19%) say they care at least a fair amount about the leadership election, against seven in ten (71%) who say they either don’t care very much or don’t care at all. Even among Conservative voters, only four in ten (42%) say they care who wins the election, compared to half (52%) who are not particularly bothered.
Perhaps explaining this lack of interest is a perception among the public that the election doesn’t actually matter. Only one in six Britons (18%) believe that who wins the election will make even a fair amount of difference to whether the Conservatives win the next general election, with six in ten (59%) instead feeling the outcome of the leadership election will make little to no difference to the Tories’ odds of winning.
Additionally, only one in three Britons (35%) believe that the Conservatives are relevant to the British political landscape at the moment, with half of the public (51%) instead feeling that the party is either not very relevant or not relevant at all.
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Photo: Getty
