Europeans think there is likely to be violence in the US if Donald Trump doesn’t win
Tuesday will see millions of Americans heading to the ballot boxes to decide whether Kamala Harris should receive a promotion from vice president to president, or if Donald Trump should be handed a second term in office.
Now a new YouGov EuroTrack study uncovers attitudes towards the election in seven Western European countries: Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Sweden.
The results show that Harris is the favoured candidate in each country surveyed. The Danes are the most likely to want Harris to win, at 81%, while Italians are the least likely to, at 46% - although this still significantly outnumbers the Italian Trump vote (24%).
Here in Britain, 61% say they want the Democratic candidate to triumph, compared to 16% for her Republican rival.
The outcome will be of no surprise to those familiar with European public opinion, and indeed in most of the countries surveyed the results are very similar to our poll ahead of the 2020 election. The results do differ in Sweden, however, which has swung more behind the Democratic option compared to four years ago, and in Italy, where people are less likely to back Harris than they were her predecessor.
While Kamala Harris is the preferred president in each country, the results unsurprisingly differ by partisanship. Support for Harris is highest among those Europeans who voted for parties on the left, although even for supporters of centre right parties she remains the preferred candidate – for instance, she is the choice of 89% of Venstre voters in Sweden, 78% of CDU/CSU voters in Germany, 66% of PP voters in Spain and 58% of Conservative voters in Britain.
It is only among voters of parties that would generally be considered more “right wing” than “centre right” that Trump is the favoured choice – 54% of Vox voters in Spain, 51% of Reform UK voters in the UK, 50% of AfD voters in Germany, and 44% of Brothers of Italy voters want to see a second Trump term.
Even then, this is not always the case – Sweden Democrats voters opt for Harris by 49% to 31%, while those who backed Marine Le Pen in the second round of the 2022 French presidential election also prefer Harris by 46% to 31%.
When it comes to who Western Europeans think will win, the general expectation in each country is again that it will be Harris, ranging from 43% in Italy to 61% in Germany.
Western Europeans think Biden has been an average president, that Kamala would be a decent one, and that Trump would be a bad one
As we come to the end of his one - and likely only - four year term in office, the most common assessment of Joe Biden is that he has been an “average” president. This is the most frequent answer in each of the seven countries surveyed, ranging from 39% in Britain to 47% in Germany.
In this sense Biden has lived up to expectations (or down to them, depending on your point of view), with our 2020 survey having shown that Europeans were generally expecting Biden to be an average president in the first place.
Expectations are higher for Kamala Harris, with the most common belief in each country being either that she would be a “great” or “good” president, ranging from 37% who gave one of these two answers in Italy to 64% in Denmark.
When it comes to Donald Trump, who of course has already served one term in office, expectations are much worse. The most common answer in each country is that he would be a “poor” or “terrible president”, ranging from 48% in Italy to 77% in Denmark – and people are much more likely to be giving the more negative of those two options.
Western Europeans expect violence in the event that Kamala Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election
Following the events of January 6, 2021, when Trump supporters stormed the Capitol building, there has been significant concern that the US could see violence again should Trump be defeated at the ballot box once more.
Such worries are widespread in Western Europe. As many as 73% in Denmark think there will “definitely” or “probably” be violence if Donald Trump is not elected president, with 62-67% saying likewise in most of the other countries surveyed. Italy is again the exception, with only 47% thinking so, but this still outnumbers the 32% who think violence is unlikely.
For their part, 52% of American citizens also consider there to be a high chance of violence in the event that Kamala Harris emerges triumphant in the election. This includes 74% of Democrats and 52% of Independents, although a much lower 32% among Republicans.
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Photo: Getty
