More than six in ten Britons now dislike the prime minister
After a bruising few weeks dominated by a donations scandal and rows over the means testing of winter fuel payments for pensioners, Keir Starmer’s favourability rating has plummeted to the lowest level since he took over as Labour leader in 2020, with a net score of -36.
Currently only 27% of Britons have a positive opinion of the prime minister – the lowest since September 2021 – while 63% have a negative opinion, the highest to date.
In fact, almost as many people now have an unfavourable view of Keir Starmer as did Jeremy Corbyn at the end of his time as Labour leader (65%).
In terms of a more contemporary comparison, Keir Starmer is now as unpopular as Nigel Farage, of whom 28% have a positive view and 63% a negative one (for a net score of -35). While more people have a “very unfavourable” view of the Reform UK leader (49%, to Starmer’s 41%), a greater number also have a “very favourable” opinion of Farage (10% vs 4%).*
The prime minister is, for the time being, still less unpopular than the man he replaced, with 66% holding a negative view of Rishi Sunak and 24% a positive one (for a net score of -42).
The reputation of the wider Labour party has also been taking a hammering, with 60% now holding an unfavourable opinion of the party versus 31% a favourable one, although at a net score of -29 they still have some way to go before matching the unpopularity of the Conservatives -40.
A third of Labour voters now have an unfavourable view of Starmer (34%), with 28% likewise having an unfavourable view of the wider party.
Conservative leadership contenders
James Cleverly receives the highest ‘favourable’ rating out of the four remaining contenders, with 18% having a positive view of the shadow foreign secretary, although this is still only half the 37% with a negative view. In net terms, Tom Tugendhat has the least bad net score, at -13, although this is in part because he is the least well known, with 61% answering “don’t know” when asked what they thought of him. Only 13% have a positive view of Tugendhat, again, about half the number with an unfavourable view (26%).
Kemi Badenoch is the most disliked in both net terms (-27) and in terms of the number of people with an unfavourable view of her (40%).
Among Tory voters, Cleverly emerges as the most favourable figure on both counts: 46% have a favourable view, and his net favourability score stands at +26. Badenoch again proves the least popular by both measures, with 30% disliking her and a net score of +1.
For the latest on how Conservative party members feel about the candidates, see our study: Conservative members and the 2024 leadership contest
Sue Gray and Dominic Cummings
Sue Gray was sacked as Keir Starmer’s chief of staff over the weekend, following a series of negative briefings against her, including her management of the government’s diary of planned announcements, accusations of micromanagement of staff, and her salary being larger than the prime minister’s.
Gray was still unknown to most Britons (56%) by the time of her departure on 6 October – our survey was conducted on 4-6 October – although those with a negative view outnumbered those with a positive view three times over (33% vs 11%). Labour voters themselves had been split 23% to 18% on the former civil servant.
Gray is not the only high profile member of a prime minister’s inner circle to be ignominiously removed from their post in recent years, with a prominent comparison being Dominic Cummings, whom Boris Johnson dismissed as his chief adviser in November 2020, having been in post for over a year.
Cummings was by this point extremely unpopular, not least following the Barnard Castle incident earlier in the year, with only 9% having a favourable view of him upon his departure compared to 75% an unfavourable one.
*If we were to deviate from normal net favourability calculations to account for this, by assigning a value of +2 to “very favourable” opinion and -2 to “very unfavourable” opinion, we would get a modified net score of -74 for Farage and -73 for Starmer, leaving the two still effectively tied.
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