Most say the new UK government doesn’t understand issues facing Scotland, but only one in seven think it’s a downgrade on its predecessor
One of the key stories from July’s general election was the turnaround in Scotland – the SNP’s seismic gains first taken in 2015 were largely reversed, with Labour increasing their vote by 17 percentage points and returning to being the largest party in Scotland for the first time since 2010. One in six of Labour’s 218 seat gains came from Scotland, meaning the country played an outsized role in delivering Starmer his landslide majority. So what do Scots think this new government means for Scotland?
While just one in seven Scots (15%) feel Scotland will be worse off under the new UK Labour government than it was under the previous Conservative government, this is not necessarily down to a huge swell of optimism that Starmer’s government will make things better. Only three in ten Scots (30%) believe that Scotland is better off for the change at Number 10, with 35% of the Scottish public thinking the election result has made no real difference to the country’s general situation.
Of course, there is an element of partisanship to how Scottish people feel about this, but it’s not as strong as might be expected. Only half of those who voted Labour in July (47%) believe Scotland is better off under Starmer’s new government, with three in ten (30%) feeling the change has made no real difference to Scotland’s well-being. Similarly, only 37% of Conservative voters believe the change in government has made Scotland worse off, with the same proportion believing it has made no difference.
Who understands the issues facing Scotland?
Perhaps central to the scepticism that Scotland is better off under Labour is a widespread belief that the new government does not understand the issues facing the country, with six in ten Scots (61%) of the view that Starmer and his wider team have little to no understanding of the issues facing Scotland.
Just 27% of the Scottish public believe that the Westminster government holds even a ‘fair amount’ of understanding of what matters in Scotland, including only half (51%) of those who voted for Labour in the general election. Just one in five Conservatives (21%) and one in six SNP voters (16%) likewise feel that the new UK government is familiar with the key Scottish issues.
But while many may feel that the new government does not understand the issues facing Scotland, only one in nine Scots (11%), including just three in ten Conservative voters (28%), feel this is a step backwards relative to the previous UK government under Rishi Sunak. For the rest, there is a roughly even divide between the 43% who feel that Starmer’s government grasps the issues better than its predecessor and the 36% who feel there is no difference between the two UK governments’ understanding.
It is against the Scottish SNP government at Holyrood, however, that Starmer’s government will be most judged going forwards. This should make it more concerning for the new UK government that only one in five Scots (20%), including only four in ten Labour voters (39%), believe that Starmer and his administration understand Scottish issues better than Swinney and co.
While three in ten Scots (28%) feel neither government has a better or worse command of the issues facing their country, 35% of the Scottish public believe the Westminster government has a weaker understanding of Scotland’s problems than its Holyrood counterpart.
Has the election affected Scotland’s place in the union?
One of the major political issues in Scotland in recent years has been its place in the United Kingdom, with some on the pro-independence side sometimes claiming that the Conservative government itself was more damaging to the union than anything else. Therefore, if this is right, the public should view a change in government as having strengthened the UK.
More Scots do indeed think Scotland’s position in the union is stronger than weaker with the handover in Downing Street, but this only amounts to 22% of Scots saying the former and 13% the latter. This compares to more than four in ten Scots (43%) who say that Scotland’s position in the UK is neither stronger or weaker than it was while Rishi Sunak was prime minister.
Will fewer SNP MPs diminish Scotland’s voice in Parliament?
Beyond the government, the big political shift for Scotland was in the composition of their representation in parliament. After the 2019 election, more than three-quarters of Scottish MPs represented the SNP, the third largest party in the Commons and thus guaranteed two questions in every prime minister’s questions. Now, with the SNP having lost all but nine of their seats, by far the largest delegation of Scottish MPs are from Labour, meaning a distinctly Scottish grouping no longer possesses weekly PMQs questions, but does sit within the government.
Scots are fairly evenly divided as to whether this change has impacted how much Scotland’s voice will be heard at Westminster. A quarter of Scots (24%) say their country’s voice is now less likely to be heard, against 28% who say Scotland’s voice is likely to stronger at Westminster than it was, while a third (34%) say that the change has made no difference either way.
Unsurprisingly, SNP voters tend to be more pessimistic about the effects of fewer SNP MPs, with a majority (54%) believing Scotland’s voice in the House of Commons has been diminished and only one in ten (10%) feeling their country is now more likely to be heard.
Few supporters of other parties agree with the notion that Scotland is now less likely to be heard, with between 7-13% of Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem voters saying so, but the number believing the SNP’s defeat has strengthened Scotland’s voice varies from a third of Lib Dems voters (34%), to four in ten Conservatives (40%) and half of Labour voters (50%).
Who do Scots think will form the next Scottish government?
Where the election does seem to have impacted Scots’ perceptions of their politics is when it comes to the next Scottish election. Half (50%) anticipate Labour forming the Scottish government after the next Holyrood election, which is currently planned for May 2026, with only one in six (17%) expecting the SNP to remain in office.
Expectation of a Labour-led government is strongest among both Conservative and Labour voters, seven in ten of whom (68-69%) believe a Labour first minister is the most likely outcome of the next Scottish parliamentary election, with a clear majority of Lib Dems (57%) agreeing. SNP voters are divided, with 41% fancying their own party’s chances and 37% predicting a Labour win.
Few, though, are optimistic of the Conservatives’ chances, just 2% of all Scots and only 7% of their own voters believing the country’s first ever Tory premier is on the way.
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