Yet most would support rejoining, and would vote to do so in a referendum
Despite being the defining issue of the 2019 general election, Brexit and Britain’s future relationship with the European Union barely featured in the 2024 sequel.
A week prior to the 2019 vote fully 63% listed Britain leaving the EU as one of the top issues facing the country; shortly after the 2024 election, just 7% say that Britain’s future relationship with the EU is one of the key areas of national concern.
Keir Starmer has been keen to stress that a Labour government would not take the country back into the EU, even going so far as to say that it would not happen in his lifetime.
While some ardent Remainers may want Labour to reverse course now that they are safely in office, the public explicitly say that Starmer’s election victory does not give him a mandate to bring Britain back into the EU – 51% say so, compared to only 21% who think the election result does hand Labour such a mandate.
Two thirds of Leave voters (67%) deny the new government has a mandate to join the EU, and so too do Remain voters by 48% to 28%. Those who gave Keir Starmer his mandate – 2024 Labour voters – answer at almost exactly the same rate as Remain voters (47% vs 27%).
The public likewise say that Labour do not have a mandate to rejoin the Single Market or Customs Union (although fewer people say so, at 38-40%, this is because of much higher ‘don’t know’ rates – the number who explicitly say Labour does have such a mandate only rises a few percentage points to 24-25%).
At the other end of the scale, the public likewise do not consider Labour to have a mandate to further loosen ties with the EU, by 44% to 19%.
This leaves Labour with only two options, as far as public opinion is concerned. The first is to keep things as they are – 40% believe the government have a mandate to maintain the status quo, compared to 23% who do not.
The second is to bring Britain into a closer relationship with the European Union, without rejoining the European Union, the Single Market, or the Customs Union, which 45% consider Labour to have a mandate for compared to 21% who disagree.
This, as it happens, is exactly what Labour pledged to do in their 2024 election manifesto. It is also the option on future relations with the EU that garners the most public support. More than six in ten Britons (63%) say they would back bringing Britain closer into the EU’s orbit, without rejoining its major institutions. This includes 70% of 2024 Labour voters, as well as 70% of Remain voters and 61% of Leave voters.
While they may not think Labour have a mandate to rejoin the EU, Britons would still back a move. A majority of 53% now say they would support rejoining, compared to 36% who would oppose it.
There is also plurality support for rejoining the Customs Union (by 49% to 20%) or the Single Market (by 48% to 25%).
While the public might say that Starmer has a mandate to maintain the status quo, they do not want him to do so – only 29% want to keep Britain’s relationship with the EU as it is, compared to 50% who are opposed.
The least supported option is further loosening ties with the EU – 22% want to break further with the continent, but 59% do not.
Bregret: Britons think Brexit has gone badly, that it was wrong to vote to leave the EU, and would vote to rejoin
It has now been the eight years since Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, and four and a half years since the result was finally implemented.
To date, 62% of Britons see Brexit as having been more of a failure than a success. Only 12% say it has been more of a success, and 19% say it has been neither a success nor a failure.
Leave voters are divided on the reality of Brexit: 33% see it as more of a failure, 28% more of a success and 34% neither. Those who voted Conservative at the recent general election are even more closely divided – 32% success, 31% failure and 32% neither – while Reform UK voters are more likely to think Brexit has been neither a success nor failure (40%), while otherwise being evenly split on whether it has been more of a success (27%) or a failure (28%).
Among those who say that Brexit has been more of a failure, voters differ on whether it could ever have been a success. Tories are split – 49% of those who consider Brexit a failure think it was always going to be a failure, and there was nothing any government could do to make it a success, while 46% think Brexit had the potential to be a success, but the way successive governments implemented it made it a failure.
By contrast, Reform UK voters who think Brexit has been predominantly a failure are overwhelmingly convinced that it could have been a success (76%), but that the previous Conservative governments messed it up. Only 15% think it was always doomed to fail. In this, the view of Reform UK voters are far closer to the views of the wider Leave-voting electorate than Tory voters are: 71% of Leave voters who think Brexit has mostly failed so far say it could have been a success, while 19% now look back and say it was always destined to fail.
Given that the majority feel that Brexit has been a failure, it is no surprise that 55% of Britons now think that the UK was wrong to vote to leave the EU eight years ago. Only 34% still think it is the right call – these figures have remained roughly consistent since late 2022.
Close to three quarters of Leave voters (72%) continue to say that the 2016 national decision was the correct one, while 18% now thing it was wrong.
While the UK may have famously voted to leave the EU by 52% to 48%, were that election to happen again the British public now say they would vote to Remain by 62% to 38%. This includes 18% of original Leave voters who have since changed their mind.
Now that the UK is firmly outside the EU, however, the question becomes whether or not to rejoin the continental bloc. Only the Greens promised to bring the UK back into the EU as soon as possible in their 2024 election manifesto, although the Lib Dems listed it as a longer-term objective after intermediary steps like rejoining the Single Market.
No party has promised a second referendum on whether or not to return to the EU, but were one to take place it seems very likely that the public would vote to rejoin. Our latest poll finds that the rejoin camp would win the vote by 59% to 41%. This again includes 18% of Leave voters having now reversed their position, wishing to be members of the EU once again.
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Photo: Getty
