Biden vs Trump 2024: how much of a difference do Britons think it makes who wins?

Kate BrooksbankPolitical Research Executive
May 21, 2024, 9:25 AM GMT+0

The public would prefer another Biden presidential term but think it is more likely that Trump will win this coming November

In recent months both Boris Johnson and Liz Truss have endorsed Donald Trump to win November’s US presidential election, with the former saying such an outcome would be a “big win for the world”.

Their preference puts the two former Conservative prime ministers at odds with the British public, over half of whom (55%) say they would prefer a Biden victory, in comparison to just 18% who favour a Trump win.

Those who voted Conservative in the 2019 general election are substantially more likely (31%) than those who voted for Labour (5%) to say they would prefer Trump to win the election over Biden. This said, 2019 Conservatives are still more likely to support a Biden win (39%) to a Trump win, but not as significantly as 2019 Labour voters (76%).

Men are also much more likely (26%) to want a Trump victory than women (11%).

While the public want Joe Biden to win a second term, they are not confident this will come to pass. Britons are divided on who they think will triumph in November: 27% say Biden, 30% say Trump – and fully 43% are unsure of the outcome.

Would there be a difference between Biden and Trump winning in 2024?

Joe Biden and Donald Trump are two very different politicians, so to what extent do Britons think that major international issues will be affected by the outcome of November’s election?

When it comes to international relations, a majority (55%) think there will be a great or fair difference depending on whether Trump or Biden occupies the White House. Only 26% expect things to play out about the same way regardless.

By 45% to 34% Britons think the choice of president will make much of a difference to global trade, although they are split 36%-36% on what the impact on the global fight against climate change will be.

One in four (25%) also think that the outcome of the US election will have a notable impact on UK domestic politics, although 56% disagree.

What would the difference be between a Biden or Trump victory in 2024?

Regardless of whether or not the public think there is anything between the two presidential candidates, how positive or negative do they think the impact of either would be?

When it comes to the specific impact on the UK and US relationship, half of Britons (47%) think Trump in the White House would weaken relations whereas just 16% think this will be the case if Biden wins. Instead, people tend to think another Biden presidential term will make no difference to Anglo-American relations (40%).

Britons also tend to be pessimistic about Donald Trump’s effect on international relations (60% say it would be negative), tackling climate change (57%) and global trade (46%).

In endorsing Donald Trump for president, both Boris Johnson and Liz Truss suggested that the world would be a safer, more stable place under the Republican candidate.

Again, Britons disagree with the former prime ministers, tending to think a Trump return to the White House increases the likelihood of major international conflict. Half (50%) think the likelihood of a nuclear war rises in the event of a second Trump term, 43% think a Russian invasion of further countries in Europe becomes more likely, and 35% see a greater chance of China invading Taiwan.

Britons also tend to think that the likelihood of a solution to the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict would decrease if Trump were to win (36%).

By contrast, the most common view in each case among Britons (39-42%) is that Biden continuing in office would neither increase nor decrease the likelihood that fresh conflicts would break out, or that the Gaza conflict would be resolved.

See the full results here

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Photo: Getty

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