Labour overtake Tories on who Britons think will win the next election

Matthew SmithHead of Data Journalism
September 27, 2022, 3:15 PM GMT+0

Nine months after Labour took the lead from the Conservatives in YouGov’s voting intention polls, the party has overtaken their rivals in terms of who Britons expect to win the next general election.

As of our most recent poll, conducted today, 47% of Britons say they think a Labour government is the most likely result of the next general election, currently scheduled for no later than January 2025. A further 26% believe yet another Conservative government is the most likely outcome, while 28% are unsure.

This is a big jump for Labour from mid-way through the month, when the two parties were still neck and neck at 37% for Labour and 35% for the Tories.

One in three Britons (35%) now anticipate a Labour majority specifically, including 14% who expect a large one. One in eight (12%) only expect a Labour minority government at the next election.

By contrast, only 15% of people believe the Conservatives will retain their majority at the next election, with a further 11% thinking the party will repeat its 2010 and 2017 performances in forming a government in a hung Parliament.

Most voters who backed Labour in 2019 (67%) are confident the party can win power at the next election, with 14% still expecting the Tories to triumph once more. Conservative voters are divided: 40% expect the party will remain in power, while 39% think Labour will unseat them.

See the latest results here and the historical tracker results here

Photo: Getty

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