The foreign secretary’s supporters are less likely to say they might change their mind than the former chancellor’s
It has been apparent since our first polling of the Conservative party membership for this leadership election that Rishi Sunak faces an uphill struggle.
In the gaps between polling, Sunak’s supporters have been claiming that the former chancellor has been successfully convincing members to back him.
However, YouGov’s latest full poll of Conservative members – conducted for The Times, and the first since our snap poll after the final two candidates became clear – shows Sunak falling further behind.
Liz Truss’s lead over her rival has in fact grown to 38pts, with the foreign secretary currently holding 69% of the headline vote, to Sunak’s 31%. Those figures had stood at 62% and 38% respectively in our previous poll on 20-21 July.*
Team Sunak will have been hoping that they could convince those who had not made up their mind how to vote to back them as the campaign wore on. At the onset of the membership stage of the campaign, 21% of Tory members were either unsure how they would voted or committed to not doing so. That figure has since fallen to 13%, with Truss seemingly the bigger beneficiary.
Worse still for Sunak, few of his opponent’s supporters look like they could be convinced to join his side. Fully 83% of those who currently say they intend to vote for Truss say they have made their mind up on the matter; just 17% say they might still change their mind.
Indeed, Sunak’s own supporters display less conviction about their candidate: 29% say they might still vote differently.
*YouGov's weighting targets have been updated since the last poll on 20-21 July based on new estimates of the Conservative Party membership base. This had the effect of marginally reducing Truss’s lead from what it would have been under the previous weights.