General public still see Conservatives as the most likely winners, for now
It is coming up to 12 years since there was a Labour government in Downing Street, with the Conservatives triumphing – to greater or lesser degrees – at the last four elections. For most of the last year, those who backed the Labour party in 2019 have had little faith that this trend would change.
In early December, almost twice as many 2019 Labour voters thought the Conservatives were most likely to emerge victorious next time (48%) than thought Labour would (27%), but following weeks of negative press around the government this opinion has begun to shift.
At the start of January, 36% of these voters thought Labour would be the biggest party at the 2024 election, which has now risen again to 42%, the highest level of optimism this Parliament. One in three of these voters (34%) think the Conservatives will once again have the most seats.
Looking at the perceived outcomes in more detail, 23% think Labour will achieve either a large (5%) or small (18%) majority, while 19% think they’ll be the biggest party but not gain a majority. One in five still expect a Tory majority (3% large, 17% small), while 14% think there will be a hung parliament with the Conservatives winning the most seats.
Amongst the general public, the perception is still that the Conservatives will be the largest party with 44% saying they think the party will either win a large majority (4%), small majority (23%) or be the largest party under a hung parliament (17%). Just 28% think Labour will gain the most seats, split between those who think they’ll get a majority (4% large, 11% small) or just fall short (13%).