“Things can only get better”, sang enthusiastic Labour activists on the night of the party’s landslide victory back in 1997.
According to ministers and, indeed, official statistics, things mostly have got better. But that’s not the verdict of the jury that counts: the voters. They have become so fed up with Labour’s spin machine that they disbelieve virtually everything the Government says – even when it’s true.
YouGov’s large-scale poll for the Sun makes this devastatingly clear. Even after last year’s recession, average living standards are one-fifth higher than when Labour came to power – but far more people say they are worse off (44 per cent) than better off (28 per cent) than they were in 1997.
Despite smaller class sizes, better exam results and thousands of new school buildings, more people think state schools are now worse (34 per cent) rather than better (26 per cent).
Crime rates have fallen steadily over the past 12 years, yet three times as many voters think crime has gone up (49 per cent) than down (15 per cent).
In just one area does Labour win more bouquets than brickbats. Thirty-four per cent think the NHS has improved, while 31 per cent think it has got worse. But, given the vast amounts of money spent on health, and the virtual end of long waiting lists, ministers must have hoped for far more gratitude from the electorate.
Given these figures, ministers might be shocked, but should not be surprised, to learn that a mere 17 per cent of the electorate think Labour’s rule overall has been “good” or “excellent”, while 44 per cent say it has been “poor” or “terrible”. (Thirty-five per cent strike a middle course, saying “fair”, with Labour having done a mixture of good and bad things.)
In fact, the only real surprise is why the Tories are not heading for a landslide victory. This is because millions of swing voters have yet to decide where to place their affections. They have fallen out of love with Labour in a big way – but most have not yet fallen in love with the Conservatives.
This commentary first appeared in The Sun on 11 January.
