The two main parties have published their manifestos – and most voters are less than impressed with either.
YouGov has tested five Labour and five Conservative promises and asked whether respondents believed that, if elected, they would keep or break each promise. The table below shows the main findings. None of the ten promises is believed by a majority of electors. The two highest scores are the 42% who believe that a re-elected Labour government would reduce pensioners’ heating bills, and the 41% who believe a Conservative government would reduce immigration.
The main difference between the two parties is that the figures for the Conservatives are far more consistent: between 36% and 41% believe each promise, while 38% to 41% disbelieve each. The net scores (believe minus disbelieve) vary between plus three and minus three. In contrast, Labour’s pledges attract a far wider range of reactions, from plus ten (cutting pensioners’ fuel bills) to minus 42 (ensuring public sector workers speak enough English).
This probably flows from the fact that Labour has been in power for 13 years, and attitudes to the party are more fully worked out, while the opposition Conservative Party attracts a more general reaction of belief or disbelief to the promises put forward by David Cameron.
Overall, however, Cameron has more reason to be pleased by these figures than Gordon Brown. Averaging responses to each party’s promises, the figures for the Tories are 38% believe – 38% disbelieve, a net score of zero, while the figures for Labour are: believe 30%, disbelieve 44% - a net score of minus 14.
LABOUR PROMISES
| Will keep promise | Will break promise | Don't know | |
|---|---|---|---|
Reduce pensioners' heating bills by an average of £100 a year | 42 | 32 | 25 |
Allow the people who run successful schools and hospitals to take over and run failing schools and hospitals | 39 | 31 | 30 |
Not raise income tax rates | 27 | 55 | 18 |
Make it easier to sack failing police chiefs | 24 | 40 | 36 |
Stop immigrants with poor English taking public sector jobs | 18 | 60 | 22 |
Average | 30 | 44 | 26 |
CONSERVATIVE PROMISES
| Will keep promise | Will break promise | Don't know | |
|---|---|---|---|
Reduce net immigration to Britain from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands each year | 41 | 38 | 21 |
Cancel next year's rise in national insurance for most workers and freeze council tax for two years | 39 | 41 | 19 |
Pass new laws to enable bad MPs to be sacked | 37 | 40 | 23 |
Impose prison sentences on everyone convicted of a knife crime | 36 | 39 | 24 |
Give voters the chance to run local schools, vote for local police chiefs and set up co-operatives to run local services | 36 | 34 | 30 |
Average | 38 | 38 | 23 |
