The May elections

Anthony WellsHead of European Political and Social Research
April 01, 2011, 10:28 PM GMT+0

As well as the referendum on electoral reform, the 5th of May will also see most of the country go to the polls for local, Welsh Assembly or Scottish Parliamentary elections. The only parts of the country that won't have an election of some sort alongside the referendum are London, and a few English local authorities with unusual electoral cycles.

In Wales our latest polling shows Labour in a very strong position. Our latest voting intention figures for ITV Wales are:

  • Welsh constituency: Con 21%, Lab 47%, Lib Dem 8%, Plaid 17%
  • Welsh regional: Con 20%, Lab 45%, Lib Dem 8%, Plaid 16%

Compared to the last Welsh Assembly elections in 2007, the Conservatives are down by around 1 point, Plaid Cymru are down by 5 and the Liberal Democrat vote is down by 7 points in the constituency vote and 4 points in the regional vote. Labour meanwhile are up by 15 points. On a uniform swing this would leave them with around 33 seats in the 60 seat assembly, an overall majority.

Things are somewhat less positive for Labour in Scotland, with our most recent polling showing the SNP overtaking Labour in the constituency vote. The latest voting intention figures are:

  • Scottish constituency: Con 11%, Lab 39%, Lib Dem 5%, SNP 40%
  • Scottish regional: Con 12%, Lab 39%, Lib Dem 5%, SNP 32%, Green 6%

Both Labour and the SNP are significantly up on the 2007 Scottish election in the constituency section, but Labour retain a lead in the regional vote meaning they would still end up with more seats than the SNP. Meanwhile the Conservatives are down the Liberal Democrat vote has collapsed, with the party at below half its 2007 support and in 5th place behind the Scottish Greens in the regional vote.

Finally our polling of English local election voting intentions earlier this month found support in those areas with local elections this year at Con 34%(-4), Lab 38%(+16), Lib Dem 13%(-11) and others 15%. A projection based on these figures for the Sun by Professor Colin Rallings at Plymouth university showed the Conservatives losing 1000 councillors and the Liberal Democrats losing 700.

See our Welsh poll for ITV Wales
See our Scottish poll for The Scotsman
See our English poll for The Sun