The final YouGov Nowcast suggests the Conservatives and Labour will be tied in seats.
The YouGov Nowcast is a statistical application of the data we observe – devoid of any speculation, historical knowledge, hunches or other wizardry. It is what the numbers say in their brutal form. The final model includes data from 187,190 voters and includes 50,198 new interviews since the last published version on April 29th. It includes data up until the end of yesterday, and has ended up at seat counts of Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, SNP 51, UKIP 1 and Green 1.
In terms of national vote share, our polling suggests that the two main parties are still level-pegging. In the past ten days, YouGov has had four Tory leads (all of 1 point), four Labour leads (all of 1 point) and the rest have been ties. The much-promised campaign swing to the Conservatives has not materialised.
How that national vote share translates into seats is a matter of uncertainty. There has never been an election quite like this one. A statistical model devoid of speculation comes out with one result, an informed guess by a seasoned political expert comes out with another. At YouGov we have decided to publish both: later tonight YouGov's Peter Kellner will publish his final seat forecast, including any factors he chooses to include.
We'll know within 48 hours which came closer.
