The Tories no longer have a clear lead in voter expectations
A month ago I noted that there were two questions which ought to have the same answer but which don't.
Towards the end of February I split a sample randomly in two and asked the first split: "Which party do you think is most likely to form a government after the general election?" The second random split was asked: "Who do you think is most likely to be prime minister after the general election?"
The two answers should have been the same but they weren't. The Conservatives beat Labour by net 12%, but Cameron beat Miliband by net 20%. I thought that when the two converged, we would have the real vote.
I ran the same test yesterday and it was a net 1% lead for the Conservatives and a net 3% for Cameron – so we are very close to convergence, with Labour actually one point behind in that same poll.
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