Voting intention analysis

Anthony WellsHead of European Political and Social Research
November 11, 2010, 10:04 PM GMT+0

Our latest poll for the Sun has voting intention figures of Conservatives 42%, Labour 37%, Liberal Democrats 11%.

A five point lead is larger than the Conservatives have recorded recently, but doesn't necessarily signify anything.

  • Since the conference season the voting intention polls have actually been very steady, with the Conservatives on or around 41%
  • Labour on or around 39%
  • And the Liberal Democrats on or around 11%.

With the possible exception of short term responses to events like the spending review, any movement we've seen has probably just been random sample variation.

Best PM?

Today's poll also included our fortnightly tracker on which party leader would make the best Prime Minister.

  • David Cameron continues to hold a healthy lead, with 39% naming him as the leader who would make the best PM
  • Compared to 21% for Ed Miliband
  • And 8% for Nick Clegg.

It is noticable that Cameron holds a much larger lead as best Prime Minister than his party does on voting intention - this will partially be a positive endorsement of Cameron himself, but will also be because Ed Miliband is still relatively unknown and because incumbent Prime Ministers have a natural advantage in the question - unlike with Miliband or Clegg respondents don't have to imagine David Cameron in the role of Prime Minister, they can see it for themselves.

See the survey details and full results