Analysis: Latest voting intention

Anthony WellsHead of European Political and Social Research
September 28, 2010, 6:04 PM GMT+0

YouGov's latest poll for the Sun shows voting intention at Conservative 39%, Labour 40%, Liberal Democrats 12%. This is the first time that we have shown Labour ahead of the Conservatives since the end of Gordon Brown's honeymoon in 2007. On a uniform swing, these figures would give Labour a majority of 10 seats based on current boundaries, although these are likely to be changed before the next election.

This is also the first time since 2007 that Labour have hit 40% in the polls. The party conference season traditionally produces boosts for each of three political parties in turn as they benefit from media coverage from their own conference, so while the first poll lead for the Labour party in 3 years is likely to be a big morale boost for the party, past experience suggests the Conservatives will move back ahead when they receive a boost from their own party conference in a week's time.

Other findings:

  • David Cameron leads Ed Miliband as Best Prime Minister: Cameron 38%, Miliband 25%, Clegg 9%
  • 43% think Ed Miliband will do well as Labour leader, 23% think he will do badly, 34% don’t yet know.
  • 42% of respondents thought that Ed Miliband’s election represented Labour moving to the left, though respondents were split about whether this was a good or bad thing.
  • 33% of respondents thought that the trade unions would have too much influence over Labour under Ed Miliband, 29% thought they would not

Survey details and full results

Results: Ed Miliband and issues
Results: Ed Miliband and partner