Professor Ben Lauderdale, co-creator of YouGov's MRP model, explains how it works

We think that weighting to past vote is important, and that the bouncing polls seen in recent weeks are deceptive

YouGov conducts thousands of interviews every day, and uses the data to model the vote, state by state

A new statistical model making use of all YouGov data shows support for leaving the European Union increased in early June only to peak on June 13th