With less than a week to go, the No campaign has moved back into the lead in Scotland’s referendum campaign
YouGov’s latest survey for The Times and Sun has No, on 52%, narrowly ahead of Yes, 48%, after excluding don’t knows. Compared with our last poll, for the Sunday Times, Yes is down three points and No up three.
This is the first time No has gained ground since early August. Three previous polls over the past month had recorded successive four point increases in backing for independence. In early August Yes support stood at 39%; by last weekend it had climbed to 51%.
Although No is back in front, the Yes campaign has held on to most of its gains since early August. These gains have come partly from people switching from No to Yes and partly from don’t knows.
Counting all respondents, No led Yes by 55-35% five weeks ago, with 11% saying don’t know. Compared with then, Yes is up ten points to 45%, and No and don’t know both down by five points, to 50% and 6% respectively. (Percentages don’t add to 100 because of rounding.)
YouGov questioned 1,268 electors online between Tuesday September 9 and Thursday September 11.