While the Conservatives don’t want to come to any agreement with Nigel Farage, their voters do
Last week Nigel Farage called on Boris Johnson to drop his Brexit deal, or else the Brexit Party would stand candidates in all constituencies. In return for cooperation, Farage wants the Conservatives to join him in a ‘Leave Alliance’ which will see the parties divvy up Britain’s constituencies.
Farage’s threats have not found favour with any Conservative MPs, although the Brexit Party leader does enjoy the support of US president Donald Trump.
He also has the backing of a large majority of Conservative voters. Fully seven in ten (70%) of those who intend to vote Conservative – as well as 81% of those who currently say they will vote for the Brexit Party – say they would support an electoral alliance between the two parties. Just 8% and 6% respectively are opposed.
In the event of a pact, a YouGov survey found that Conservative candidates standing in a constituency where the Brexit Party had stood down and endorsed them could pick up 72% of the votes of those who currently say they would vote for Farage’s party.
Likewise, a Brexit Party candidate running unopposed and endorsed by the Tories could expect to receive 62% of the votes of people who currently would vote Conservative.
What coalitions would Conservative and Labour voters support?
Should it come to needing to form a coalition, 69% of those who currently back the Tories would be happy to support the parties coming to an agreement.
The Brexit Party is the only party Conservative voters are willing to get into bed with in government: even a deal with the Tories’ ostensible current allies, the DUP, is only welcomed by 30%, and still opposed by 50%.
Current Labour voters are much more willing to work with other parties. Should the need to agree a deal or enter into coalition arise, 75% would support doing so with the Greens, 56% the SNP, 53% the Lib Dems and 47% with Plaid Cymru.
The conditions of any agreement with the SNP are likely to include a second referendum on Scottish independence. This wouldn’t seem to bother current Labour voters unduly, with 57% saying that the next government should allow “Indy Ref 2”. Only 20% disagree.