Lead data journalist

Results reflect a big improvement for the Tories from our previous survey in July, at the expense of the Brexit Party

With MPs mulling whether or not to grant Boris Johnson his request to hold a general election, new YouGov data shows that the overwhelming majority of people with a view think that the Conservatives would take the most votes and seats should a ballot come to pass.

Approaching half of Britons (46%) expect the Tories to win the most votes, and an almost identical 45% think they will win the most seats. Due to the fact that 32% of people don’t know who will win the most votes/37% don’t know who will win the most seats, this means that the number of people who think the Conservatives are going to win far outstrips the number who think any other party will.

Just 12% of people think Labour will win the most votes, with the same number thinking the same of seats. For the Brexit Party those figures are 5% and 3% respectively, and for the Lib Dems they are 3% and 2%.

These figures represent the Conservatives’ reviving fortunes at the extent of the Brexit Party. When we last asked this question in July, only 21% thought the Conservatives would win the most votes and 26% the most seats. The Brexit Party, by contrast, was seen as likely to secure the most ballots by 19% of people and win the highest number of MPs by 11%.

Labour figures haven’t budged, having been on 13% on both measures back then, and the Lib Dem figures of 5% for votes and 4% for seats are within the margin of error from last time.

Confidence is up among Tory voters, down among everyone else

People who intend to vote for one of the main parties are far more likely to think that party will win the most votes/seats than the average Briton is, but confidence levels have slipped among everyone except Conservative voters.

In July only 50% of people who intended to vote Conservative thought the party would win the most seats in the event of an election. That figure has now risen to 73%. At the same time, the proportion who think the party will win the most votes has risen from 46% to 82%.

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This increase in the confidence of Tories is matched by the decrease among those who plan to vote Brexit Party. While in July 73% thought the party would win the most votes and 51% the most seats, these numbers have now tumbled to just 30% and 17% respectively.

At the moment a third (35%) of those who plan to vote Labour think Corbyn’s party will win the most seats (down from 42%), with 43% currently thinking they will win the most votes (down from 50%).

Just 8% of Lib Dem voters think Jo Swinson will lead the party to winning the most seats (down from 14%) and 11% think the orange team will take the most votes (down from 21%).

Photo: Getty

See the full results here

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