YouGov referendum prediction: YES 46%, NO 54%

September 18, 2014, 9:18 PM UTC

YouGov predicts that No has won Scotland’s referendum with 54% of the vote

YouGov bases its prediction on the responses of 1,828 people after they voted today, together with those of 800 people who had already voted by post. Today’s respondents had previously given their voting intention earlier this week. By recontacting them, we could assess any last-minute shift in views. Today’s responses indicate that there has been a small shift on the day from Yes to No, and also that No supporters were slightly more likely to turn out to vote.

YouGov also asked people whether they had encountered active supporters of the Yes and No campaigns at their local polling station and, if so, whether the campaigners had acted reasonably. Big majorities said that any campaigners they encountered behaved reasonably; but 10% of No voters said they had encountered unreasonable behaviour by Yes campaigners, while 5% of Yes voters said they encountered unreasonable behaviour by No campaigners.

Image: PA