John Humphrys asks: is Britain changing as we would like it to or are we being carried along on a tide of change we neither like nor seem able to control?
This week the Office for National Statistics published the first results of last year’s census. What they show is how radical many changes have been over the last decade. Is Britain changing as we want it to, or are we being carried along on a tide of change we neither like nor seem able to control?
The figures the ONS was dealing with covered just England and Wales, where every householder had to fill in a census form on 27 March last year. The census, which has been conducted every ten years (except during war) since 1801, is intended to give a snapshot of life here and to map trends and changes in the way we live.
Many of the results simply confirm social developments we’re all familiar with. For example, it will come as no news that the population is getting older. Sixteen per cent of the population is now over 65 (up 0.9 million over the last ten years), with 0.8% of the population now over 90. What may be more noteworthy is that there are now 2.1 million people giving twenty hours of the week for free in caring for them (and for others who are ill or disabled), a rise of half a million over the decade.
Nor will it come as a surprise that the number of people who register on the census as married has continued to fall. Ten years ago, 50.9% of respondents reported themselves as married; now it is 46.6%. There are now over half a million more cohabiting couples and an extra 400,000 single parents.
Similarly – and some people might see a connection here – the decline in the number who call themselves Christians continues apace: 72% back in 2001 but only 59% now. That’s around four million fewer. Those with no religious belief has almost doubled from 7.7 million to 14.1 million. The number of people who describe themselves as Muslim has risen by over a million to 2.7 million, or 4.8% of the population.
Other results, though, show a change in trend. Home ownership, for example, has fallen after rising steadily for several decades. In 2001, 69% of households were owner-occupied but this has fallen to 65%. Council tenancies fell from 13% to 9% while those in private rented accommodation rose from 9% to 15%. The number of households living in overcrowded homes rose by half a million to two million.
But what was most striking in the census results was the hike in the overall size of the population and the radical change in its mix.
Over the ten years between 2001 and 2011 the population of England and Wales rose by 3.7 million (7%) to 56 million. Migration was responsible for 60% of that increase. There are now 7.5 million people (or 13% of the population) here who are foreign-born compared with 9% ten years ago: 2.9 million of them arrived in the last ten years. The largest group comes from India, followed by people from Poland and Pakistan. Perhaps to many people’s surprise, there has also been a large influx of Germans.
This migration has had a striking effect on the country’s racial mix. The number who describe themselves as ‘white’ has fallen from 91% to 86% and those who describe themselves as ‘white British’ has gone down from 87.5% to 80.5%. The number of people who are of mixed race has nearly doubled to 2.2 million.
Figures for London are even more dramatic. The proportion of the capital’s households that are ‘white’ is now only 59.8%, and those that are ‘white British’ 45% (down from 58%). Almost a quarter of Londoners are not British nationals and over a third (37%) were born abroad.
To some people these statistics will be seen as evidence that Britain (or at least England and Wales) is rapidly ceasing to be the country they knew and is changing its identity in a way that they deplore. They will see the figures as vindication of their long-held view that British immigration policies have been far too lax and that politicians have betrayed them by allowing the change to happen.
Even those who may have taken a more liberal view of immigration policy in the past may be pulled up short by these figures and be tempted to conduct a thought experiment. If, ten years ago, politicians had forecast that their policies would produce results such as those reported in the census, would the public have voted for those policies?
But there’s another view. The dramatic change in the face of Britain can no longer be questioned, but for many it is a matter of celebration for several reasons.
First, they have come about with remarkably little social tension or upheaval. There has been no appreciable political reaction, certainly not of an extremist or violent sort. Furthermore, they will say, the greater racial and ethnic mix has been wholly beneficial to our economy. Think of Indian doctors and nurses and Polish builders, for instance. And the social effect, they will say, has in many places been transformative. London is a far more vibrant and exciting city than it was twenty or thirty years ago and this is because, not despite the fact, that you can sit on a London bus or walk down Oxford Street and barely hear English spoken.
So who’s right?
- Do you welcome the changing face of Britain or does it worry you?
- Do the census figures show that Britain has become a better or a worse place in the last ten years?
