Voting intention 25 April

Anthony WellsHead of European Political and Social Research
April 26, 2010, 3:00 AM GMT+0

Our latest daily polling figures for The Sun (fieldwork 24th-25th April; sample size 1,466) are:

  • Conservative 34%
  • Liberal Democrat 30%
  • Labour 28%
  • Others 8%

With only ten days left until the election our latest figures have the Conservatives back ahead in the polling. The Liberal Democrat surge after the first of the leaders’ debates has subsided slightly, but the party remains at or just below 30%, far above its pre-debate level of support and ahead of Labour in third.

Our post-debate poll after the second debate showed viewers thought David Cameron performed the best, with Nick Clegg in a very close second.

If support remains steady in the final week of the campaign and these figures are repeated at a general election, a hung Parliament would be a practical certainty, though whether Labour or the Conservatives would have the most seats is difficult to call – it would depend upon the exact result and regional variations in the swing. With 30% of the vote, the Liberal Democrats would likely remain the smallest party in terms of seats because of the way their vote is distributed around the country (it is mostly concentrated in the seats they hold and a small number of target seats – elsewhere they tend to have very low levels of support and would require extreme swings).

17% of Conservative voters, 15% of Labour voters and 27% of Liberal Democrats say they may yet change their vote before the general election. Voting itself began this week for people who have applied for postal votes.

Survey details and full results