Four in ten say the same of their local area
There has been much recent discourse on whether or not the UK is worse now than it was in the past. On the one hand, politicians like Tory MP Neil O’Brien are raising the alarm about the deterioration of the country. On the other hand, writers such as Fraser Nelson and Janan Ganesh argue that such perceptions are wide of the mark.
So where does public opinion stand? A new YouGov survey examines what people think of the current state of the country, and how that compares with other countries in the West. The study also compares attitudes with perceptions of Britons’ own local areas.
The public think the UK is in a bad state, is worse than it was ten years ago, and will get worse still over the next year
Fully 82% of Britons consider the UK to be in a bad state, including 36% who see the country as being in a “very bad” state. Only 14% think the UK is in good health, with just 1% proclaiming it to be in a “very good” state.
Three quarters of the public say the country is in a worse place now than it was 10 years ago (75%), and most Britons likewise expect conditions to deteriorate over the coming 12 months (60%).
The public also have a tendency to think that the UK is in a worse place than other Western countries, with 48% saying things here are worse than most or all other peer nations.
How has opinion on the state of the UK changed over the past 12 months?
YouGov previously ran three of these four questions in May of last year, and a comparison shows that negative attitudes are hardening, with public perceptions being even worse than last year.
While the 80% of Britons who considered the UK to be in a bad state last year is largely the same as the 82% this year, the number saying we are in a “very bad” place specifically has increased by five points. There has likewise been a similar five-point increase in the number saying the UK is worse than other Western countries.
When it comes to expectations for the next twelve months, the 60% who currently think things are set to get worse is an enormous increase on the 39% from last year – this is likely due to the fact that the previous survey was conducted in the early stages of the 2024 general election campaign, with many people doubtless anticipating that a change of government would improve things.
What kind of state do Britons consider their own local area to be in?
Polling has consistently found that people have more negative national than local perceptions, with prime examples including YouGov’s trackers for NHS services (national/local) and education (national/local).
Our results show that this trend also plays out on this topic, with the same questions asked of Britons’ local areas finding much sunnier views, with a majority (54%) considering their local area to be in a good state – although only 3% say it is in a “very good state”.
Nevertheless, a significant portion of the public (40%) believe their local area to be in a bad state, including 10% who describe it as “very bad”.
In contrast to expectations of the country more generally, most Britons (54%) expect that their local area will be in about the same state in a year’s time as it is now, but 32% think things will get worse locally – and only 7% expect them to get better.
However, opinion is much more negative when asked to say how things have changed in the last ten years – 48% say their local area is worse now than it was in 2015, with a quarter saying it is in about the same state (26%) and only 15% saying things have improved where they live.
Nevertheless, few Britons believe themselves to live in an area that is worse than most other parts of the country (12%). Instead, the largest portion consider themselves to live in an area that is “about average” (42%), while a further 36% think their area is doing better than most other parts of the UK – although this might not be saying much given so many of the public think the country in general is doing badly.
If we combine the three variables on people’s perceptions of their local area’s past, present and future, some notable groups emerge.
The single largest group are those who think that their local area is in a bad state, is worse than it was 10 years ago, and will get worse still over the next 12 months. One in five Britons (21%) hold this combination of views.
The second most common group, at 17%, are those who say their local area is in a good state, that this is about the same as it was compared to 10 years prior, and that they expect things to remain about the same in the next 12 months.
In third place are the 10% who say their local area is in a good state, but is worse than 10 years ago, and who expect no change over the next year. These three groups alone account for almost half of the UK population (48%).
The worse people think their local area is, the worse they say the state of the UK is
So how does opinion on local area relate to national perceptions?
The results show a clear correlation between thinking your own area is in a bad state and saying the same about the UK as a whole.
For instance, while 44% of those who believe their own local area is in a “very good state” see the wider UK as also being in a good state, this falls to 22% among those who rate their neighbourhood as being in a “fairly good state”, to 5% among those living in a “fairly bad” local area, and to a statistical 0% among people who consider their locality to be in a “very bad” state.
Almost all Britons who consider their own local area to be in a bad state say the same of the wider UK. Among those who consider their own local area to be in a “very bad state”, 80% also brand the wider country to be in “very bad” shape.
The same trend carries across all the questions – the more negative the public are about the state of their local area, how it has changed, and how they expect it to be next year, the more likely they are to give negative answers to these questions regarding the wider UK.
How do attitudes differ by party?
Reform UK voters are more likely than other voters to have a negative view of their local area’s past, present and future – and the same is true of their attitudes to the wider UK.
One in three Reform UK voters (36%) are in the most negative combination group: thinking that their local area is in a bad state, has got worse over the last 10 years, and will be worse still in 12 months’ time. This compares to 23% of Tory voters also falling into this category, as well as 17% of Labour voters and 19% of Lib Dems, but only 8% of Greens.
For their part, voters for these non-Reform main parties are more likely to live in areas they describe as in good shape, having stayed about the same for the last 10 years and likely to do so for the next 12 months. This includes 23% of Green voters and 24% of Lib Dems (in both cases this is the most common category they fall into), as well as 22% of Tories and 17% of Labour voters (for both of which this is closely tied for the top spot alongside the previous all-negative combination).
When it comes to other variables, 18-24 year olds stand-out among the age groups, being less likely to have a negative view almost across the board, as are people in middle class households (ABC1) when compared to their working class counterparts (C2DE).
While the nature of the question is geographical, trends are not immediately apparent at a regional level. While Londoners are generally less likely to say things are bad across the local past, present and future questions, and Midlanders typically more likely to say so, the difference of the extent is not as distinct as other factors.
What do you think about the state of your local area, the wider country, and everything else? Have your say, join the YouGov panel, and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here.
Photos: Getty
