Reform UK have clear leads in inaugural races for Lincolnshire and Hull mayors
A key part of the local elections on 1 May will be the races for the four combined authority mayoralties. Now new YouGov polling, conducted between 9-23 April, provides an insight into the state of the race in the weeks leading up to voting day.
Greater Lincolnshire
Reform UK’s Andrea Jenkyns holds a healthy lead in her quest to become the first mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, with 40% intending to vote for the former Conservative minister. This compares to 25% currently supporting Conservative Rob Waltham and 15% backing Labour’s Jason Stockwood.
In terms of smaller parties, the Greens’ Sally Horscroft is on 8% of the vote, Marianne Overton of the Lincolnshire Independents is on 7% and Liberal Democrat Trevor Young is on 5%.
Hull and East Yorkshire
Reform UK also lead in the race to be the inaugural Mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire. Our poll puts candidate Luke Campbell on 35% of the vote, clearly ahead of Lib Dem Mike Ross on 21%, Labour’s Margaret Pinder on 20% and Conservative Anne Handley on 15%.
Green candidate Kerry Harrison is on 7%, while 3% intend to vote for the Yorkshire Party’s Rowan Halstead.
West of England
The West of England mayoral contest is a close race between the Greens’ Mary Page, currently polling at 27% of the vote, and Labour’s Helen Godwin, on 23% of the vote. If the Greens manage to convert their small poll lead into a victory, it will mean the mayoralty has been won by a different party in all three elections since the position was established.
Reform UK’s Arron Banks and the Conservatives’ Steve Smith are neck and neck in third and fourth place, with our poll putting them on 18% and 17% of the vote respectively. Lib Dem candidate Oli Henman is on 13% of the vote, while independent Ian Scott is polling at 2%.
Cambridgeshire and Peterborough
While many have predicted big losses for the Conservatives in the council elections, the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoralty might be a source of good news for Kemi Badenoch. Our poll has the Tory candidate Paul Bristow on 32% of the vote, a clear lead over other candidates, which will allow the Conservatives to gain the mayoralty from Labour.
Instead, it is the race for second place that looks to be close, with Reform UK’s Ryan Coogan on 20%, Labour’s Anna Smith on 19% and Lorna Dupre of the Lib Dems on 18%. The Greens’ Bob Ensch is currently in fifth place on 10%.
Last time this mayoralty was contested in 2021, it was held under the two-round ‘supplementary vote’ system, which meant that although the Conservatives had an eight-point lead in the first round, second preference votes from Lib Dem voters allowed Labour to win the contest in the second round. This time the contest will happen under first past the post, meaning polls will have to narrow in order for the Tory lead to be overturned.
See the full results for the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough contest here
See the full results for the Greater Lincolnshire contest here
See the full results for the Hull and East Yorkshire contest here
See the full results for the West of England contest here
What do you think about the upcoming council and mayoral elections, local government in general, and everything else? Have your say, join the YouGov panel, and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here.
Photo: Getty
