Labor are best positioned to form government, falling one seat short of majority in a reversal of fortunes from YouGov's last MRP estimate in February
YouGov's latest MRP model of the 2025 election shows Australia is on course for a hung parliament, but one where the most likely result sees Labor win 75 seats – just one short of a majority – in the 150-member House of Representatives. This would leave Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in a strong position to form an administration.
See the full seat-by-seat projection at https://au.yougov.com/elections/au/2025
Paul Smith, Director of Public Data at YouGov: “Labor is now only one seat short of a majority in a notable change from our previous MRP in February. This is a decisive change in the Australian political landscape – from a likely Coalition government in February to a likely Labor government now. The turnaround is because of a 1.3% swing to Labor which sees the Coalition fall behind in 10 key marginal seats that they were projected to win our previous projection. As the election nears, the data points to a very dynamic campaign.”
See the full seat-by-seat projection at https://au.yougov.com/elections/au/2025
MRP projections
The model projects a range of results, with Labor currently on course to secure between 69 and 80 seats, Coalition taking 55-68, the Greens 1-3, and Independents 7-12.
YouGov’s central projection – the most likely result – shows Labor on 75 seats, the Coalition on 60, Independents on 11, Greens on 2, KAP on 1 and the Centre Alliance 1. This would see Labor experiencing a net loss of 12 seats, with several traditional Labor electorates in working class areas going to the Coalition.
See the full seat-by-seat projection at https://au.yougov.com/elections/au/2025
Notable seats
No serving Labor cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats. However, two prominent members of the Coalition are:
- Liberal MP Dan Tehan, Shadow Cabinet Minister for Immigration and Citizenship, is set to lose Wannon to Independent challenger Alex Dyson
- Liberal MP Michael Sukkar, Shadow Cabinet Minister for Housing and Social Services, is on course to be defeated in Deakin by Labor challenger Matt Gregg
Additionally, Cowper, currently held by retiring Nationals MP’s Pat Conaghan, is projected to be won by independent challenger Caz Heise. Additionally, all sitting independents are projected to retain their seats.
Labor is favoured to win Brisbane and Griffith from the Greens but the results will be determined by the preferences of voters of the third-placed party in what are three-way contests between Labor, Greens and the Coalition.
Since last month’s MRP, 10 seats have changed from Coalition to Labor: Bulwinkle, Tangney, Boothby, Chisholm, Hunter, Shortland, Patterson, Macquarie, McEwan, Eden-Monaro.
Labor is projected to lose the seat of Aston they won in by-election.
See the full seat-by-seat projection at https://au.yougov.com/elections/au/2025
Primary votes
The data shows the Coalition decreasing its vote share by 0.2 points on the 2022 result, with Independents rising by 3.0 points and the Greens by 0.9 points. The biggest losers are Labor, which is on course to see its share decline by 2.8 points.
Two-party-preferred vote
The two-party-preferred vote shows a 1.9% swing to the Coalition compared to 2022, with Labor on 50.2% and the Coalition 49.8%.
Preferences
Labor is now receiving slightly more preferences from One Nation and Green voters than in our previous MRP and this is detailed in our MRP methodology statement.
About the MRP
The team at YouGov behind the Australian MRP model is the same one that accurately projected both the 2023 Spanish election, the 2024 UK general election and 2025 German federal election.
MRPs (multi-level modelling and post-stratification) are constituency projection models that first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about prospective voters and their opinions – in this case, which party they will vote for at the general election – in a ‘multilevel model’. It then uses data at the constituency level to predict the outcomes of seats based on the concentration of various different types of voters who live there, according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties (‘post-stratification’).
See the full seat-by-seat projection at https://au.yougov.com/elections/au/2025
