Only one in three believe that climate change is a result of human activity
The 2024 general election marked a seismic shift in the British political landscape. One of the most notable aspects of this was the detaching of a substantial group of voters from the right wing of the Tory party to go to Reform UK.
As a result, Reform UK voters are now an observably large portion of the British public on standard-sized polls: this gives us an opportunity for the first time to see the views of such voters in detail.
With world leaders gathered in Azerbaijan for COP-29, a new YouGov study takes the opportunity to see where Reform UK voters – and voters for all major national parties, alongside the wider public – stand on the issue of climate change.
Belief in climate change
Reform UK voters are substantially less likely than voters for other parties to say that the climate is changing as a result of human activity. Just one in three (35%) believe in anthropogenic climate change – half as many as the wider public (71%). By contrast, most Tory voters (61%) believe in man-made climate change, as do 84-85% of Labour and Lib Dem voters and 92% of Green voters.
Relatively few Reform UK voters outright dispute that the climate is changing at all, although at 13% this is still higher than the 7% figure among Tory voters and 1-2% of Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters.
Instead, Reform UK voters are most likely to say that, while they believe the climate is changing, it is not as a result of human activity (41%).
Unsurprisingly, therefore, most Reform UK voters (59%) say they believe the threat of climate change has been exaggerated, with the threat not as real as many climate scientists have said.
Again, they are the only party to feel this way – only 32% of Tory voters think the climate threat is exaggerated, falling to 10-12% among Labour and Lib Dem voters and just 3% of Greens. Just a quarter of the wider public (24%) think the climate change threat has been overblown.
Concerns about climate change
Just 28% of Reform UK voters say they are worried about climate change and its effects – half the level among Tory voters (55%) and substantially lower again than Labour and Lib Dem voters (82-83%) and Greens (95%). Among the public as a whole, 62% say they are very or fairly worried about climate change.
While one in five Britons (20%) consider ‘the environment’ to be a top issue facing the country, this falls to just 4% of those who backed Nigel Farage’s in July. This compares to 12% of Tories, 24-28% of Labour and Lib Dem voters, and 61% of Greens.
Action and spending on climate change
There is also a strong sense among those who voted for right wing parties at the 2024 general election that the UK is doing more than most other countries to reduce carbon emissions. The government proclaimed the UK to be the first major economy to have halved emissions earlier this year, although there has been criticism that this is a statistical sleight of hand, with the UK’s carbon emissions having instead been ‘offshored’ by not counting the carbon emissions used to create imported goods.
Reform UK and Conservative voters agree at almost the same rate (64% and 60% respectively) that the UK is doing more than other countries to reduce carbon emissions, but other voters are less convinced. This is also the most common view among the general public, although fewer than half think so (43%).
Labour voters are split, 32% saying the UK is doing more than other countries to 28% who think it is doing about the same amount, while Green voters are more divided between whether the UK is matching other countries’ efforts (26%) and whether we are under-performing relative to our peers (27%).
Additionally, two thirds of Reform UK voters (65%) say that the government is doing and spending too much to try and reduce carbon emissions. This is also the most common answer among Conservative voters, although at the much reduced figure of 43%.
By contrast, around half of Labour and Lib Dem voters (50-54%) think the government aren’t doing or spending enough, rising to 73% of Green voters – this is also the most common view among the wider public, although only a plurality of 41% think so.
One in three Reform UK voters (32%) say the UK should not be trying to reduce its carbon emissions at all - the only voting group where a significant number of voters feel this way; among the whole public this figure is only 8%.
Given the views of Reform UK voters, it is no surprise to see that 71% believe that other spending areas than climate change are the priority currently. They are joined in this view by 58% of Tory voters, but only a minority of Lib Dems (34%), Labour voters (27%) and Greens (10%) agree.
This issue divides the public as a whole: while 34% see climate change as the spending priority, 39% would rather see funding directed elsewhere.
Results from the 2-4 November survey for this article can be found here
Other results are drawn from two merged waves of the following trackers
Compared to other countries, how is the UK government handling climate change?
Are concerns around climate change exaggerated?
How is the UK government handling climate change?
What do you think about the prospects for COP-29, the fight against climate change in general, and everything else? Have your say, join the YouGov panel, and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here.
Photo: Getty
