YouGov has proven accuracy by predicting the London Mayoral Election 2012 results
YouGov's reputation for accuracy has been proven once again, this time with the result of the London Mayoral Election 2012 results.
Our final poll on the 2012 London Mayoral Election, conducted for the London Evening Standard, showed Boris Johnson beating Ken Livingstone by five points in the first round, and by 53-47 in the second round. The final outcome saw Boris lead by four points in the first round, and win the election by 52-48 after second preferences were re-allocated. Across all the candidates, YouGov’s average margin of error was just 1.3%.
This year’s success mirrors the 2008 London Mayoral Elections, when Boris Johnson defeated Ken Livingstone by 6% - exactly as YouGov had predicted.
YouGov alone also accurately predicted the scale of Labour's victory in the elections to the London Assembly. YouGov's figures of a 42-32% win over the Conservatives compare with the actual result of 41-32%. The only other company to report Assembly voting intentions predicted 33% for Labour and 28% for the Conservatives. We predicted a swing from Conservative to Labour to within 1% of what happened - just as we alone predicted the swings from Labour to Conservative to within 1% in each of the last three general elections.
The result has extended YouGov’s reputation for accuracy and further proved the merit of the company’s online research methodologies.
Peter Kellner, President of YouGov, said: “We are proud of our accuracy in London for the third consecutive mayoral election. It maintains our record of predicting elections throughout Great Britain - and, increasingly in other countries, from France and Sweden to Iraq and the United States. It confirms our belief that well-conducted online research is not only as good as telephone polling but often better."
London mayoral elections 2012
| YouGov | ComRes | Populus | Survation | Result |
1st preference | % | % | % | % | % |
Johnson | 43 | 44 | 46 | 42 | 44 |
Livingstone | 38 | 37 | 34 | 31 | 40 |
Jones | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
Paddick | 7 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
Benita | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
Webb | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
Cortiglia | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Average error | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3.4 |
|
London mayoral elections 2012
| YouGov | ComRes | Populus | Survation | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
After 2nd count | % | % | % | % | % |
Johnson | 53 | 54 | 56 | 55 | 52 |
Livingstone | 47 | 46 | 44 | 45 | 48 |
Average error | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
|
London Assembly elections 2012
| YouGov | Survation | Result |
| % | % | % |
Lab | 42 | 33 | 41 |
Con | 32 | 28 | 32 |
Green | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Lib Dem | 9 | 10 | 7 |
Others | 10 | 21 | 11 |
Average error | 1.2 | 5.2 |
|
See the full results and poll details here
For more information please contact YouGov PR Executive Giovanna Clark
