Through the 1990s, here as well as in America, it was ‘the economy, stupid’ that decided elections. Then, during the balmy years of rapid growth, falling unemployment and low inflation, we were told that values matter most. We wanted things that take-home pay could not buy: less crime, fewer immigrants and better state schools and NHS hospitals.
Today the story is different – and the task facing politicians of all stripes is more complex. Economics has returned, with a vengeance. Voters are worried about their jobs, their pensions, their taxes and the cost of living. But to that financial insecurity we need to add the continuing, and increasingly linked, sense of social insecurity – about the impact on their lives of crime, immigration and the coming public spending cuts. The worrying thing for Labour is that on most of these fronts the Conservatives hold a clear advantage. Labour leads the Tories by a narrow margin on education and by a slightly larger margin on health; but on other issues, voters tend to regard the Conservatives as more credible. Let’s take them in turn.
Deficit reduction. There is a widespread fear that the Government is cutting public spending unfairly, too deeply and too fast. Yet more people trust the Conservatives than Labour to run the economy well. How come? The reason is that most people regard big cuts as necessary – and blame Labour wholly or partly for the problem. YouGov regularly asks people who they blame most for the coming spending cuts. In mid-June, 40% blamed Labour most, 24% blamed the coalition and a further 24% blamed both equally. There has been a modest reduction in the past 12 months in the number blaming Labour, and slightly more blaming the coalition – but the Tories remain well ahead in the blame game.
YouGov has also found consistently that most people regarded much of the extra public money spent by the Labour government was wasted. Rather than gaining the credit for providing world-class schools and hospitals, Labour was blamed for delivering world-class inefficiency.
Labour, then, has a double problem: to persuade people to blame the Tories for the coming cuts, and to show either that the extra money it spent in power wasn’t wasted – or that it has learned the lessons of how to provide value for money in teaching kids and healing patients.
Welfare reform. Labour is in danger of losing one of its historic advantages – being seen as the party that cares for the poor, the vulnerable and the elderly. Last November, when Iain Duncan Smith set out his plans for reform, YouGov found that every one of his main proposals was popular, with the backing of between 66% and 73% of all electors – and between 54% and 58% of Labour supporters – whether making extra demands on unemployed people, withdrawing Jobseekers’ Allowance from people who turn down work, introducing tougher tests on people claiming Disability Living Allowance, or limiting housing benefit to £400 a week, even if this means forcing some people to move home. YouGov has also found that most people back the withdrawal of child benefit from higher-rate taxpayers.
Underpinning these attitudes is a widespread belief that the days of universal benefits are numbered. Last October, we found that just 23% said it was ‘vital to keep universal benefits, for they do not carry any stigma, they aid social cohesion, and they apply the principle that all taxpayers contribute to their cost and so we should all draw the benefits appropriate to each stage in our lives’. More than twice as many, 56%, felt that ‘universal benefits are an attractive idea, but as public spending needs to be cut, it is better to do as much as possible to protect spending on health, education and the police; so it is right to withdraw cash benefits from those who are better off’. Even Labour voters tended towards the second option, albeit more narrowly.
Crime. The Conservatives retain an 11 point lead over Labour as the best party to preserve law and order – only fractionally down on the 14-point lead they enjoyed at the time of last year’s election. Indeed, even though Labour’s voting-intention support is up more than ten points since the election, the proportion backing Labour on crime is up a mere one point, from 24 to 25%.
Recently, Kenneth Clarke, the Justice Secretary, proposed that criminals who plead guilty at the first opportunity should be given up to 50% shorter prison sentences. Many people from the world of crime and punishment backed the idea – it would save money and reduce the backlog of court cases without placing the public at greater risk. But the right-wing media didn’t like it, and nor did the Prime Minister. His decision to tell Mr Clarke to drop the idea was endorsed by 72% of the public. Labour has a tough job returning to the ‘tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’ popularity it enjoyed in the early Blair years.
Immigration. The Tories’ 23-point lead in election week last year has scarcely been dented. It is still 21 points. The proportion saying Labour is best is up only fractionally, from 15% to 17%. It’s the one issue on which fewer than half of Labour supporters back their own party.
Most people think past immigration has provided some benefits (though 40%, including one in three Labour voters, think there have been no benefits at all). But they think it should be cut back very sharply now, and 93% back plans to require immigrants who wish to settle here to speak English. If anything, the Tories are seen as being too gentle on the issue. This is why 60% think the Coalition will fail in its aim to reduce net immigration from ‘hundreds of thousands’ to ‘tens of thousands’ a year.
Labour’s one crumb of comfort is that while 51% say immigration is one of the three most important issues facing Britain, only 15% say it is one of the most important issues facing them and their families. In other words, in most parts of Britain, immigration is not an issue that causes many people to switch votes (and the few that do switch tend to go to the BNP). But in as far as the subtext of the debate about ‘immigration’ concerns today’s widespread insecurity about jobs, housing, crime and national identity, it reflects fears that Labour has yet to be seen to address effectively.
This analysis appears in the July edition of Progress
