The second leaders’ debate on TV was much closer than the first. YouGov’s instant poll of viewers for the Sun found that David Cameron (up 7 points since last week to 36%) edged ahead of Nick Clegg (down 19 to 32%). Gordon Brown came third, but achieved the biggest gain: 29% thought he performed best, 10 points more than last week.
Other surveys tell a similar story: both Brown and Cameron gained ground at Clegg’s expense; as a result no leader achieved a knock-out victory and none suffered a heavy defeat.
As so often, it’s the secondary questions that help to tell the story. Although Cameron emerged, just, as the winner of the debate and, more convincingly, as the leader viewers though would make the best Prime Minister, many viewers retained doubts about him. After last week’s debate, 44% of viewers thought him the most evasive of the three leaders; this week the figure was virtually unchanged at 45%. In contrast, Brown’s evasiveness rating improved, by falling from 48% to 30%, while Clegg’s worsened, by jumping from 4% to 21%.
Brown also gained most ground in a battery of questions about how much confidence viewers had in each of the three party leaders ‘to take the right decisions about the future of Britain’.
Here are the percentages saying ‘a lot of confidence’ or ‘some confidence’ in each leader:
| After 1st debate | After 2nd debate | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
Clegg | 74 | 58 | -16 |
Cameron | 54 | 51 | -3 |
Brown | 47 | 50 | +3 |
As those figures show, Brown remains in third place, but – as with the overall verdict on the debates themselves – has dramatically closed the gap.
In short, all three leaders can take some comfort: Cameron has edged into the lead on his debate performance, Brown has gained most ground, and Clegg remains in the race.
This evening will see the publication of the first YouGov/Sun post-debate voting intention survey. Then we shall see how last night’s verdict, and media coverage of the second debate, will affect voting intentions – if at all.
