If George Osborne, David Cameron and Nick Clegg were worried that the public would hate this week’s Budget, they can relax. The first post-Budget poll, conducted by YouGov for the Sun, finds that most voters are willing to take the medicine. Indeed, compared with just before the Budget, more people think that the coalition’s policies for reducing government borrowing are good for Britain’s economy, and being done fairly.
Last year, when Labour was increasing spending in order to boost the economy, only 20% thought Alistair Darling was doing a good job as Chancellor. Now, immediately after a Budget that set out tax increases and spending cuts, 43% think Osborne is doing well – and only 24% badly.
One big reason why the Budget has gone down well is that Labour attracts far more blame than the Tories for the coming spending cuts. 49% blame Labour most, while 18% blame the coalition and another 18% blame both. So a total of 67% blame Labour to some extent, while just 36% blame the coalition.
And most of Osborne’s specific measures get the thumbs up from voters. We tested 17 measures: nine that raise taxes, cut spending or freeze pay or benefits, and eight tax cuts or spending increases. In every case by one, more people support than oppose the decision. Admittedly the exception is a major one: the coming rise in VAT. 34% support this while 54% oppose it. But other ‘tough’ measures are popular: By 82 to 10%%, they like the cut in tax credits for families earning more than £40,000 a year; by 58 to 27% they support the freeze in pay for public sector workers earning more than £21,000 a year; by 59-29% they back the three-year freeze in child benefit rates.
Overall, 57% think Osborne took the right decisions for Britain as a whole, and by a narrower, but still positive, margin, 42-33%, they think he took the right decisions ‘for people like you’.
One underlying reason why the Budget is popular is that it was produced by a coalition, rather than either the Conservatives or Labour acting alone. Few people think a Tory majority government would have produced a Budget that was better for the economy (14%), helping the poorest (7%) , or helping ‘people like you’ (11%). More felt a Labour government would have done better – 24%, 34% and 25% respectively – but in each case more people think Labour would have done worse than the coalition.
Three cautionary notes should be added. First, the measures have been announced but not yet implemented; second, we do not yet know which specific public services will feel the pain of spending cuts; third, we don’t yet know whether the economy will keep growing or slip back into recession. Public attitudes a year from now may be very different. But, for the time being, Osborne has much of the public on his side.
