Thus far and no further: just under half of all Britons oppose the Government’s decision to lend money to Ireland, as part of the international bailout – but a large majority say we should give no such help to Spain or Portugal, the next two eurozone countries under pressure from the financial markets.
In our latest poll for the Sunday Times, YouGov asked whether Britain should or should not lend £7 billion to Ireland ‘to help bail them out of their financial crisis’. 36% said we should, while 48% said we should not; 17% didn’t know.
However, rather different answers were given when we asked: ‘Some people expect the problems facing Ireland to spread to other countries in the eurozone, such as Portugal and Spain. If other European countries require financial help similar to Ireland's do you think Britain should contribute to a bailout?’ This time only 10% said we should, while 74% opposed the idea.
More generally, we think that the eurozone’s problems should be sorted out within the eurozone itself. Just 22% hold the view that ‘Britain's economy is reliant upon our exports to other countries and a financial collapse abroad could make our problems even worse - it is in Britain's interests to try and help the Eurozone avoid a crisis’, while almost three times as many, 60%, say: ‘Britain has its own economic problems to address and we cannot afford to help countries in the Eurozone – countries like Germany and France should bail them out’.
These views reflect two things: first, continuing nervousness about Britain’s own economic problems: our tracker questions show that most people remain pessimistic, despite recent statistics showing that our economy is growing again; second, a wider, and long-standing, disenchantment with the European Union. 76% are glad we never joined the euro; just 8% think we should have done so. As a result there is a real public appetite for the view that the problems of the eurozone are not of our making, so why should we help to bail out those who were seduced by its illusory charms?
No wonder George Osborne, the Chancellor, has been saying repeatedly that Britain’s support for Ireland is in ‘our national interest’, for Ireland is a major trading partner and it would do us no good if the country’s economy collapsed. Many of us, however, remain unconvinced.
I doubt this has so far done the Government any great harm. Apart from a few critics on the Conservative Right and in UKIP, there is no great clamour within the political world to lend Ireland nothing. The situation would change, though, if Spain or Portugal needed support. Then, it is quite possible that more Euro-sceptics would find their voice, and assert that they represent the great majority of public opinion.
How damaging would it be if Osborne then took part in an international programme to support Spain, Portugal or both? The answer, I believe, is that it would depend on what happened subsequently. If it became clear over the following year or two that we would get our money back (and that meanwhile, as with our loan to Ireland, we would be earning an attractive rate of interest), then I would expect the public to accept the Government’s decision.
But if the Government is judged in subsequent years to have thrown good money after bad, and not to get it back, then the vengeance of voters could cost the coalition parties dear. Osborne must be hoping that he never has to find money for Spain or Portugal – either because their economies recover, or because the rest of the eurozone manages to support them without Britain’s help.
