The first survey conducted in Egypt since the fall of President Mubarak shows that a truly political revolution is under way. That is, the main priority of most Egyptians is freedom and democracy: they believe economic and social reforms can wait.
The online survey of 1,871 Egyptians was conducted last week by YouGov Siraj, our Dubai-based Middle East company, for Al Aan, a pan-Arab satellite broadcaster. Although fewer Egyptians are online than in richer countries, analysis of the data by income levels shows that a genuine national consensus is emerging that is not confined to better off people. Asked to rank the priorities of the new Egyptian government, this is what the public wants:
- Political stability (74% made this their first or second priority out of six)
- Security of the masses (57%)
- Economic growth (39%)
- Generation of employment (16%)
- Better education (11%)
- Better healthcare system (3%)
This is not to say that better jobs, schools and hospitals don’t matter; rather that a better political system is seen as the route to achieving them.
It is also clear that Egyptians see the rule of law and open government as the key democratic reforms. Here is how they rank these reforms by importance, with the figures in parentheses showing how many placed each reform first or second, this time out of eight:
- A transparent judicial system (66%)
- Transparency in governance (60%)
- Political freedom/new political parties (25%)
- Freedom of expression (25%)
- Freedom of religion (12%)
- Freedom of privacy (7%)
- Freedom of the press (2%)
- Women’s rights (4%: 8% among women: but most men, and one-third of women, put this last)
YouGov Siraj also asked who would make the country’s most capable leader. The clear winner is Amt Moussa, the secretary-general of the Arab League, who is endorsed by 49% of all respondents and a clear majority of those who state a preference. The three top choices are:
- Amr Moussa, 49%
- Ahmed Zeweil (Egyptian-American scientist, and winner of 1999 Nobel Prize for Chemistry) 13%
- Omar Sulemain (Mubarak’s head of intelligence, named as Vice-President a few days before Mubarak’s downfall) 9%
None of the other five people mentioned by YouGov Siraj exceeded 2%. These included Ayman Nour, Mubarak’s rival in the 2005 presidential election, Essam Al Erian, leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, and Mohammed ElBaradei, the former Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
These are, of course, early days. We do not yet know what political parties will be formed, or which candidates will stand when elections are held. Opinions could well change once contested elections are underway. But Amr Moussa must clearly be an early favourite; and there is little evidence of widespread support for the Muslim Brotherhood.
Overall, this survey finds that Egyptians are optimistic: 85% think “the overall situation in the country” will improve; and 77% think their own situation will improve. This optimist can be seen among all income groups. Three in four Egyptians also expect the country to stick to its international agreements – including the Camp David Accords that led to peace with Israel. More generally, Egyptians are more confident that relations with the European Union will improve than relations with the US or Israel.
When Mubarak suddenly resigned ten days ago, many questions hung in the air about Egypt’s future. Would the country descent into chaos? Would Egyptians turn to the Muslim Brotherhood? Would the revolution shatter Egypt’s 30-year peace with Israel? Nobody can be certain what the answers to those questions will be in a year or two’s time. What we can say, however, is that for the moment, most Egyptians genuinely seek a stable, liberal democracy, and that efforts to secure this will be working with the grain of popular opinion, and not against it.
