Voting Intention: Conservatives lead by eleven

Matthew SmithHead of Data Journalism
July 18, 2016, 5:05 PM GMT+0

In the first set of YouGov voting intention results since Theresa May became Prime Minister, the Conservatives have opened up an eleven point lead.

The results of the poll, carried out over the first full weekend since Theresa May announced her cabinet, show a heavy swing towards the Conservatives since our last voting intention poll in April, in which Labour led by three points.

The boost for the Conservatives could be the first sign of a “new leader bounce” – parties under new leadership tend to poll relatively higher in the weeks and months following the appointment of a new leader. The results could lead to renewed calls from Conservatives for Theresa May to capitalise on her initial popularity and call a general election - as Gordon Brown famously failed to do when he was experiencing his own new leader bounce.

However, it could be part of a longer term trend towards the Conservatives as swing voters are put off Labour by the party's constant infighting. Currently 90% of 2015 Conservative voters plan to vote for them again, compared to 76% of 2015 Labour voters.

Worryingly for Labour, the Conservatives are now ahead of them in every region of the country except the North, as well as among Labour's key C2DE voter demographic.

The UKIP vote has also fallen from 20% to 12% since our last poll in April and could be an early signal that, having achieved the party's central mission during the Brexit referendum, some of their supporters are now looking elsewhere.

Image: PA

See the full results here