Final call: Welsh assembly

May 05, 2011, 6:10 PM GMT+0

Today, Wales is voting in their Assembly elections, and in our final call poll on behalf of ITV Wales, we predict the following results:

  • Welsh Assembly Constituency vote: Lab 47%, Con 20%, Plaid Cymru 18%, Lib Dem 9%, Oth 6%
  • Welsh Assembly Regional vote: Lab 43%, Con 19%, Plaid Cymru 18%, Lib Dem 8%, Oth 13%

Peter Kellner, YouGov President, says:

'Our final survey for ITV Wales suggests that the remaining question is whether Labour will win an absolute majority in the 60-seat Assembly. With 47% of the constituency vote – up 15 points on the 32% it won four years ago – Labour might just win 30 or more of the 40 individual seats (it is likely to gain one regional top-up seat at most). Whether Labour enjoys an absolute majority or just falls short is likely to depend on the outcome of a handful of tight local contests.

The Conservatives and Plaid Cymru are in a tight fight for second place in both the constituency and regional top-up votes. The Liberal Democrats have slipped badly: they are likely to lose most, and just possibly all, of the six seats they won last time.'

Total sample size 1,010 Welsh adults, field work conducted between 2nd- 4th May 2011

See the survey details and full results here

See Peter Kellner’s full commentary on our Scottish and Welsh results here