The last voting intention figures in the YouGov/Sun daily poll show the Conservatives on 37%, Labour on 42% and the Liberal Democrats on 9%.
In the last week there seems to have been a small but significant shift towards Labour in our regular trackers. Since last week, three of our polls have shown Labour with a lead of five points or above - a lead they had not hit for six weeks before that. Three of our polls have shown the Conservatives between 36% and 37%, whereas previously our daily trackers had been quite consistent in showing them at around 40%.
Previously the Liberal Democrats seemed to be taking all the pain from falling support for the government, with Liberal Democrat support collapsing while the Conservatives' remained stubbornly at 40%. This is the first time that support for the Conservatives has started to weaken.
As is often the case when the polls move, while many people will confidently offer opinions on what must be responsible for moving them, in reality it is impossible to say. We do know that our trackers on the cuts show a further shift against them, with people increasingly thinking they are unfair, bad for the economy and will have an impact on their own lives. The move in the polls also coincides with the Labour victory in Oldham East and Saddleworth and various policy announcements which could all have contributed.