Today's voting intention figures for the Sun show the Conservatives on 42%, Labour on 40% and the Liberal Democrats on 8%.
The poll shows the Conservatives ahead after three Labour leads in a row. It's tempting to put this down to a short term rise in Labour support after the prominence of the tuition fees row last week, which has now faded away again. Notably, the last time that YouGov showed a Labour lead was for three days in mid-November... straight after the Millbank protests against tuition fees.
However, before trying to read too much into the day-to-day pattern of poll movement, we also need to remember that there is a margin of error of around 3 percent on each day's figures. Three polls in a row showing Labour ahead does suggest a genuine movement rather than just random chance, but there is nothing in today's Tory lead that isn't in line with an underlying picture of a small Labour lead or the two main parties being neck and neck.
