Only a minority of Leave voters believe that Brexit will have any negative impact
In October 2016, YouGov asked both Remain and Leave voters what impact they thought Brexit would have on a variety of things – such as the economy, food prices, their personal finances, etc. The research revealed that, in contrast to Remainers, only a small minority of Leave voters believed that Brexit would have a negative impact on any issue.
Now, one year on, YouGov finds that the proportion of Leave voters with negative expectations of Brexit is almost completely unchanged. On 11* of the potential areas of impact we asked about, negative opinion among Leave voters has shifted so little that in all but one instance any changes are all within the margin of error.
The only issue that has seen an increase in negative sentiment among Leavers is the likelihood of the price of their weekly shopping going up, which has risen from 25% to 30% over the past year. This is still, however, far behind the 52% who think the cost of their shopping will remain much the same.
* for two additional measures – how immigration levels will change and whether Scotland will remain in the UK – the difference between what constitutes a good or bad outcome is less clear cut, and so we have not discussed these results in detail or included them in the chart. Leave voters have become less likely to think Scotland will leave, while their views on immigration levels remain the same.
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By contrast, Remainers are now slightly more likely than a year ago to think that the impacts of Brexit will be negative. But it is also true that over the past 12 months the biggest changes in opinion across all expectations – positive, negative or that Brexit will make no difference – have occurred among Remain voters.
Fewer of them now believe that Scotland is more likely to leave the UK as a result of Brexit (53%, compared to 70% in 2016. They are also now more likely to think that there will be less immigration to the UK (35%, from 23%), that British companies will do worse outside the EU (73%, from 63%), and believe that British society will get worse (59%, from 50%).