People in the five largest European nations see the US president as a threat to peace and security on the continent
The Ukraine conflict has dominated headlines in recent weeks, topped by a fiery exchange between Donald Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House this weekend. With the US looking increasingly likely to disengage from the conflict, European countries will need to decide if they want to increase their involvement, or leave Ukraine to its fate.
Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have been pushing for greater commitments to Ukraine, but what is the mood in Europe? Now a new YouGov study looks at opinion in Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, regarding both the Ukraine conflict and defence matters more generally.
Please note, the German portion of this survey did not include every question. The British results are drawn from several different surveys over the course of February.
Contents
- Most Western Europeans see Donald Trump as a threat to peace in Europe
- Donald Trump is very unpopular across major Western European countries
- How much do Europeans care whether Ukraine wins?
- What do Western Europeans think is likely in terms of peace in Ukraine?
- Europeans say it is unacceptable that Ukraine is excluded from peace talks
- Few now credit US for leadership in Ukraine, and few see any other country that could lead in their absence
- If the US permanently withdraws support, Europeans don’t think the rest of the West can sustain Ukraine
- Spanish, British and French publics willing to send peacekeepers to Ukraine; Germans and Italians are not
- Europeans differ on bringing Ukraine into NATO
- Britons now tend to back a European army
- France and Germany support reintroducing conscription
- Only a minority of Europeans think defence spending is too low
Most Western Europeans see Donald Trump as a threat to peace in Europe
Three years after the Russian invasion of Ukraine – and indeed 11 years after the annexation of Crimea – it is no surprise to see that Europeans tend to think Vladimir Putin is a threat to peace in Europe, ranging from 74% in Italy to 89% in the UK.
What might not normally be expected is for so many to think the same of a sitting US president. But with Donald Trump making threats against Greenland, and seeking to broker a deal with Russia on Ukraine, a majority of people in all five countries studied believe Trump is likewise a threat to peace on the continent. This again reaches from a low of 58% in Italy to a high of 78% in Britain.
Donald Trump is very unpopular across major Western European countries
Donald Trump proves very unpopular across the four countries in which we polled his favourability: Britain, France, Spain and Italy. In each country the majority have an unfavourable view of Trump, from 63% in Italy to 80% in Britain.
By contrast, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is far more well-respected. In Britain, the large majority have a favourable opinion of Zelenskyy (71%), as do pluralities of 49% in France and 48% in Spain. However, only 34% say the same in Italy – fewer than the number who have a negative view of him (49%), although still more popular than Trump (27%).
Unsurprisingly, Vladimir Putin is extremely unpopular. Three quarters of Italians have a negative view of the Russian leader (77%), rising to 82% in France and 89% in both Spain and the UK.
How much do Europeans care whether Ukraine wins?
The extent to which Europeans want Ukraine to win differs between countries – although it far outstrips support for Russia.
Two thirds of Britons say that they want Ukraine to win (67%), and that they care a great deal or fair amount that it does so – the highest of any country. At least half say the same in France (50%), Germany (52%), and Spain (57%), although this figure falls to just 34% in Italy.
Only 2-7% in each country express the same sentiment towards a Russian victory.
However, European publics send mixed signals in terms of their willingness to continue to support Ukraine.
The majority view in each country is that the West are not providing enough support to defeat the Russians – yet despite stated preferences for Ukraine to win, only a minority say their own country should boost their aid levels.
Likewise, when asked to choose between continuing to support Ukraine for as long as victory takes versus encouraging a negotiated peace that might leave Russia in control of conquered territory, the tendency is for the latter (except in Britain).
But when asked separately what should happen if the US and Russia did negotiate such a treaty, although a similar number in each country want encourage Ukraine to accept this deal as said they wanted in peace deal in the prior question, a significant portion of those taking this view say that they should continue to provide Ukraine with support if they refuse to accept the treaty.
What do Western Europeans think is likely in terms of peace in Ukraine?
People in all countries are more likely than not to think the US and Russia will agree a deal between themselves for an end to the war – and most believe that if such a deal were struck, it would leave Russia in control of conquered territory.
The nations are divided on whether or not Ukraine would accept such a deal, however. Most Britons (56%) and Germans (54%) think they are unlikely to do so, as are a plurality of Italians (46%). French people are much more evenly split, with 35% thinking it likely and 40% unlikely, while Spaniards tend to think Ukraine would accept a US-brokered peace deal, at 45% to 36% who disagree.
Europeans tend to take a negative view towards the prospect of a peace deal leaving Russia in control of conquered territory, but the extent differs by country. The UK is the only country surveyed in which a majority of people would take a negative view (55%), compared to pluralities of 47% in Spain and 39% in France. In Italy, people are more closely divided between the 31% who would have a negative view and 31% who are more neutral – and indeed Italians are the most likely to think such a treaty would be a positive thing (19%).
Most Britons (65%) and Spaniards (55%) believe Russia would be likely to attack Ukraine again within 10 years if they did sign a peace agreement – as do 49% of French people and 48% of Germans. Italians are split, with 35% thinking another war would be likely while 37% suspect not.
As for further Russian ambitions, again, there tends to be an expectation that Russia would attack other European countries than Ukraine within the next decade. Six in ten Britons think this is likely (60%), as do pluralities of 44-47% of French people, Germans and Spaniards. Italians disagree, with 45% saying such an event is unlikely, compared to 27% who think it may come to pass.
Europeans say it is unacceptable that Ukraine is excluded from peace talks
Donald Trump has sent negotiators to talk directly with Russia over bringing the war to an end, excluding European countries and, more notably, Ukraine from the process. Most Europeans (52-78%) see it as unacceptable to exclude Ukraine from negotiations regarding, with a tendency to also say it is unacceptable to exclude Europeans.
Few now credit US for leadership in Ukraine, and few see any other country that could lead in their absence
Opinion has turned sufficiently against the US that relatively few Europeans now acknowledge American leadership in the West’s response to the Ukraine war. Asked to pick up to three countries that have shown the greatest leadership on the issue, only 17-31% say the US – and America does not top the list in the UK or France, in both of which the public tend to say their own country has shown the most leadership.
That said, when asked about America’s contributions in terms of providing military supplies to Ukraine, 61-65% in each country describe the US as having made a strong contribution – generally a better score than Europeans assign to other countries. This suggests that while Europeans still acknowledge America’s historical material support, recent actions may have undermined perceptions in terms of moral leadership.
In the event of US disengagement from the conflict, there is no obvious successor in the European mind to take up the mantle of leadership on Ukraine. Approximately half answer “don’t know” or “none” on which country is best placed to take leadership for continued international support for Ukraine.
Britain tops the list in Britain, although at only 20%. Likewise in France, France comes top (23%), whereas for Spain it is Germany (21%) and in Italy they point to the British, although at a mere 10%.
If the US permanently withdraws support, Europeans don’t think the rest of the West can sustain Ukraine
Following his row with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, Donald Trump has suspended military aid to Ukraine. European leaders have talked about increasing arms manufacturing capacity in order to allow Ukraine to continue to fight, but few think that the rest of the West can plug the gap left by the US.
Only a third of Spaniards (35%) and Britons (33%) believe European and other Western countries would be able to provide enough support to Ukraine to enable it to keep defending itself. This falls to just a quarter (24-25%) in France, Germany and Italy.
Spanish, British and French publics willing to send peacekeepers to Ukraine; Germans and Italians are not
Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer have championed plans to station peacekeepers in Ukraine, in the event that a peace deal is signed, in order to deter further Russian aggression.
There is general willingness to commit peacekeeping forces to Ukraine in both countries, with 52% saying so in Britain, and 49% in France (versus 27-29% opposed). Spaniards are similarly supportive of sending troops (53%), however willingness falls to only 36-37% in Germany and Italy, where more are opposed (45-47%).
Europeans differ on bringing Ukraine into NATO
Zelenskyy has repeatedly requested for Ukraine to be allowed to join NATO, including offering to give up his presidency in exchange for membership.
Most Britons (62%) and Spaniards (57%) do think that Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO, but other Europeans are much less willing, at just 36-38% in France, Germany and Italy. This represents division overall in France and Italy, whereas in Germany significantly more people actively oppose allowing Ukraine to join the alliance (46%).
It does appear that at least some supporters of Ukrainian NATO membership aren’t aware of the implications of such a move. When asked in a separate question about willingness to use military force to protect Ukraine from Russia, fewer people in all countries say their nation should be prepared to do so: for instance, only 49% in Britain say so, and 42% in Spain. Willingness to defend Ukraine militarily is lowest in Italy, at 24%.
When it comes to willingness to defend other countries militarily, there has been a notable shift in attitudes towards the USA. Compared to this time last year, Britons, Spaniards and French people are substantially less likely to say their country should be prepared to assist the USA militarily if it were attacked by Russia. This is a unique shift in opinion, with British, French and Spanish willingness to defend all the other countries we asked about remaining about the same, and is therefore doubtless connected with the recent change in leadership in the US.
In Italy, by contrast, the reduction is far more modest, and nor is it unique, with similar declines among Italians being willing to defend several of the other countries we asked about.
While they might be reluctant to get involved in a war to assist the US, Western Europeans are also sceptical that America is willing to honour its NATO collective defence commitments.
When it comes to a potential Russian attack on the Baltic states, as well as Poland, only between 18-39% of people in the UK, France, Spain and Italy think the US would go to their aid. Europeans are somewhat more confident that the US would defend their own respective countries, although only in Italy is this the majority view (55%).
Despite these doubts, there is still relatively high support for remaining in NATO across the countries surveyed, from a plurality of 45% in Italy to 66% in Britain. No more than one in five actively oppose their country’s NATO membership, and this figure is as low as 5% in Britain.
Britons now tend to back a European army
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on Europe to create a European army in response to Russia’s military build up. Such calls have been made for years, but have gathered impetus since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The most notable impact has been in Britain. The Russian invasion saw a significant jump in support in the UK for a European army – where the public had been opposed by 47% to 24% in 2021, shortly after the invasion that rose to a near even split of 34% to 35%. This has since tipped into support, with 43% of Britons now backing an integrated European army versus 30% who remain opposed.
Germans likewise are more supportive of a European army, with 63% now saying so, up from 52% prior to the invasion.
By contrast, Italians have become more reluctant to see a unified military entity as time has gone by. When our tracker began in 2018, 58% of Italians were in favour – this figure saw a big drop to 48% between 2019 and 2020, and has since declined slightly to 45%. Over the same seven year time period, Italian opposition to a European army has slowly but consistently crept up from 23% to 36%.
France and Germany support reintroducing conscription
Russian aggression in Ukraine has led some European countries to consider reintroducing conscription, with Germany approving a draft law at the end of last year to gauge the readiness of the nation’s youth to serve in the armed forces.
Most people in France (68%) and Germany (58%) support mandatory military service for young people. Italians are Britons are divided, while a majority of Spaniards (53%) are opposed.
Only a minority of Europeans think defence spending is too low
While the Ukraine conflict has dominated headlines in recent conflicts, there is limited recognition that national defence spending needs to be increased.
Britons are the most likely to say so, at 46%, compared to 39% in France, 32% in Spain, and just 11% in Italy. Although not asked on this survey, in December 45% of Germans had said defence spending was too low.
In France, this represents a 12 point increase in the number saying defence spending is too low since our December poll, alongside more modest six point rises in Britain and Spain. In Italy, however, this figure is virtually unchanged.
Donald Trump has complained about low defence spending in Europe, and there is limited support for the three main ways in which military funding could be increased: by cutting services, by increasing borrowing, or by raising taxes.
Keir Starmer does seem to have found a solution to navigate this problem in the UK however; by drawing extra defence spending by making cuts to the international aid budget. A UK poll last week found that the British public supported this move by 65% to 20%.
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